Analytical Report by Foreign Policy Magazine; Major Strategic Shift of the Islamic Republic in the Middle East

The Foreign Policy magazine, in an analysis by Kenneth M. Pollack, a senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute, noted a significant shift in Iran's strategy and policies in the Middle East. Since the 1979 revolution, the Islamic Republic has consistently sought to dominate the Middle East and expel the United States and Israel from the region. In this pursuit, Tehran has attempted to pressure Arab countries through extortion and insurgency, launching an unrelenting terrorist campaign against the United States and Israel. The author highlighted that Iran's grand strategy has fundamentally changed. One example of this policy shift is Iran's agreement with Saudi Arabia, mediated by China. After a decade of severed diplomatic relations, the two countries have resumed their ties and even discussed cooperation to prevent further collapse in Sudan. The Iranian government has also resumed its diplomatic relations with the United Arab Emirates, seeking collaboration with Abu Dhabi in air transport and infrastructure. The UAE has gone so far as to exit the U.S.-led maritime coalition in the Gulf and agreed to join a rival coalition with Iran. Tehran has initiated peace talks with Bahrain, whose government still blames the Islamic Republic for various attempts to incite revolution by the Shia majority in the country. Tehran also has a new development agreement with Oman and is normalizing relations with Egypt. The Islamic Republic has resumed negotiations with Turkey (Russia and Syria) to find solutions to their bilateral issues in Iraq and Syria. They have a new oil-for-gas deal with Iraq, where their allies have more control over the government than ever before. One of the most notable changes is Iran's proposal to form a regional assembly without the presence of the United States and Israel, something that would have been unthinkable a decade ago. The Iranian Foreign Minister recently concluded a trip to four Gulf countries, achieving unprecedented outcomes for Iranians. However, all this peace and friendship with neighbors did not include the United States and Israel. Iranians remain committed to their hardline policies in this regard. The Islamic Republic's navy continues to harass American ships in the Gulf, having attacked or seized U.S. or Israeli-linked vessels at least five times in the past six months. They have also increased their support for various Palestinian terrorist groups. Similarly, Iran's allies and proxy forces among Shia militants in Iraq have harassed American forces there. Alongside Syrian and Russian allies, the Islamic Republic is doing the same in Syria. It seems that even the recent release of prisoners between the United States and Iran, rather than indicating any genuine interest in de-escalation, is more related to Iran's desperate need for cash. The new foreign policies of the Islamic Republic may be aimed at exploiting this situation. After 40 years of provocation and aggression, Arab countries are well aware of what Iran is capable of doing, especially if the United States is not present to prevent them. Alongside this real threat, it appears that the Islamic Republic has added a promise to improve relations with Saudi Arabia if the Arab world frees itself from dependence on the United States and accepts Iran's role. To date, the main motivation behind the Abraham Accords and other close relations between Arab countries and Israel has been their desire to unite due to a shared fear of the Islamic Republic and its allies. The Biden administration believes that the reconciliation between Saudi Arabia and Israel and its ultimate bond is dangerous for Iran and potentially beneficial for the United States. Whether this alliance is a boon for the United States largely depends on the level of American involvement in it. This means that in the absence of an active U.S. role in the region and in such an alliance, a new coalition between Israel and Saudi Arabia may trigger further aggression from the Islamic Republic and lead to catastrophic tensions for the region, and if it impacts energy flows in the Middle East, for the United States and the world as a whole. This article is based on a piece from Foreign Policy magazine. The U.S. special envoy for Yemen is heading to the Gulf region. Iran: The Saudi consulate in Mashhad has started operations 'in a hotel.' Kuwait and Saudi Arabia have agreed to begin developing the 'Al-Durra' (Arash) field without Iran's presence. The U.S. denied an agreement with Saudi Arabia on a 'framework' for normalizing relations with Israel. Iran missed the opportunity to enter the global helium market. An Emirati company has acquired 30% of the gas field in Azerbaijan; Iran still has no share in the Caspian oil and gas.