AP Analysis: The Accuracy of Iran's Missile Fleet in a Potential Attack on Israel is 'Questionable'

The Associated Press has conducted an analytical report examining the military capabilities of the Islamic Republic, stating that as threats of an attack against Israel arise in response to the killing of a Hamas leader in Tehran, the level of missile capability and threat posed by the Islamic Republic is in question. A new report shared exclusively with the news agency indicates that one of the most advanced missiles of the Islamic Republic is significantly less accurate than previously thought. Sam Lear, a researcher at the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies, who worked on this analysis, stated that the missile attack on April 14 by the Islamic Republic 'demonstrates limited capabilities for attacking Israel.' He added, 'If I were the leader of the Islamic Republic, I would probably be a bit disappointed.' Lear assessed that if the Islamic Republic's missiles cannot accurately reach their targets, 'this changes their role' and noted, 'They no longer hold much value for conventional military operations and may be used more as terrorist weapons.' During this attack, the analysis by the Associated Press showed several launch sites, including in the suburbs of Arak, Hamadan, Isfahan, Kermanshah, Shiraz, Tabriz, and Tehran. Drone triangles were launched first, taking hours to reach their targets. Then, cruise missiles took a shorter time, and finally, the ballistic missiles Emad, Qadr, and Khaybar Shikan, which, according to the Wisconsin Project on Nuclear Arms Control analysis, required only a few minutes. Drones and missiles were also launched from Yemen, likely by Houthi rebels supported by the Islamic Republic. Israeli officials estimated that the Islamic Republic fired 170 drones, 30 cruise missiles, and 120 ballistic missiles. In Jordan, an Associated Press journalist captured footage of a ballistic missile being intercepted above the earth's atmosphere, likely by an Israeli Arrow-3 missile, with the explosion spreading in a circular pattern. The U.S., U.K., France, and Jordan all intercepted incoming projectiles. The Americans reported that they shot down 80 bomb-laden drones and at least six ballistic missiles. Israel's missile defense was also activated. Fabian Hinz, a missile expert and researcher at the International Institute for Strategic Studies who studies Iran, stated that the attack 'was clearly not something symbolic and was not intended to avoid damage' and added that this attack 'was a major effort to overcome Israeli defenses.' Satellite images and videos released by the Israeli military show that at least four missiles from the Islamic Republic hit the naval base of Nawatim during this attack. Analysts stated that the only remnants found in the area - collected from the Dead Sea - indicate that the Islamic Republic used Emad missiles to target Nawatim. The Emad missile and its accuracy assessment are worse than previously estimated. The Emad missile, which uses liquid fuel, is a type of Iran's Shahab-3 missile based on North Korean design and is reported to have a range of approximately 2000 kilometers. Analysts said this indicates that the Emad missiles were likely launched from the Shiraz area, which is within the estimated ranges of the missile's capabilities. Based on Iran's focus on F-351, analysts at the James Martin Institute hypothesized that the potential target of the Iranian government's fire could be a set of aircraft hangars. This position is also considered a nearly central point within the Nawatim base itself. Lear stated that this 'offers a much more valuable target' than just 'poking a hole in the runway,' but none of the Iranian missiles directly hit those hangars. Assuming Iran targeted the hangars, analysts at the James Martin Institute measured the distance between the hangars and the impact points of the missiles. This measurement averaged about 1.2 kilometers for the 'circular probable error' or C.P., a metric used by experts to determine the accuracy of a weapon based on the circular radius that includes 50% of where the missiles landed. This rate is significantly worse than the 500-meter circular error initially estimated for the Emad missile. After the end of the UN arms embargo against the Islamic Republic of Iran in 2020, Iran separately promoted the Emad missile to international buyers as a missile with a circular error of 50 meters. Fabian Hinz, a missile expert at IISS, stated that this level of error aligns with the superior specifications of other missile systems deployed elsewhere. The Associated Press concludes in this analytical report that 'the results of the April attack were by no means close to that accuracy.' Sam Lear, a researcher at the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies, also examined the missile attack on the Nawatim base, stating, 'This means that the Emad missile is far less accurate than previous estimates.' He emphasized that 'this indicates the Islamic Republic is a generation behind in accuracy from where previous assessments thought they were.' The poor performance of the missiles may be related to electronic warfare actions designed to mislead missile guidance systems, possible destruction, poor missile design, and the long distances involved in the attack. The reuse of missiles and drones in a potential future attack. In the past, the Islamic Republic's threats for retaliation against Israel have primarily taken the form of attacks by proxy forces in the Middle East or attacks targeting Israeli interests elsewhere, such as embassies or tourists. Geography limits the options for a direct military attack by the Islamic Republic. Iran has no border with Israel, and the two countries are approximately 1000 kilometers apart at their closest point. The Islamic Republic's air force, an aging fleet led by F-14 Tomcats and MiG-29 fighters from the Cold War era, has no parity with Israel's F-351s and its air defense. This means that the Islamic Republic will again have to rely on long-range missiles and drones. It may also enlist the help of allied militias such as Hezbollah in Lebanon and Houthi rebels in Yemen to overcome Israeli defenses. Israel and Hezbollah exchanged heavy fire on September 4. The constant threat remains in the background that Tehran could develop nuclear weapons, a threat that officials of the Islamic Republic have reiterated in recent months. While the Islamic Republic insists that its nuclear program is peaceful, Western intelligence agencies and the International Atomic Energy Agency state that Tehran had an organized military nuclear program until 2003. U.S. intelligence agencies reported in July that the Islamic Republic 'has taken actions that give it a better position to produce a nuclear device if it decides to do so.' However, building a weapon and miniaturizing it for placement on a ballistic missile could take years. The report from the U.S. Director of National Intelligence stated, 'The Islamic Republic has the largest inventory of ballistic missiles in the region and continues to emphasize improving the accuracy, lethality, and reliability of these systems' and added, 'The Islamic Republic will likely apply the lessons learned from the April attack.' Biden's criticism of Netanyahu; The U.S. president announced a 'draft new agreement' between Israel and Hamas. CENTCOM confirmed the attack by Iranian-backed Houthis on two more tankers in the Red Sea. Bloomberg: The Iranian government will soon provide ballistic missiles to Russia.