April Inflation Rate This Year, Lowest in the Last Quarter Century

The Central Bank of Iran and the Statistical Center of Iran have published their reports on urban and rural inflation rates for the first month of this year. The average inflation rate reported by the Central Bank is 11.2 percent, while the Statistical Center of Iran reported it as 10.8 percent. The point-to-point inflation rate, which compares the inflation rate of April this year to the same month last year, reached 7.7 percent according to the Statistical Center of Iran, while the Central Bank announced this rate as 7.4 percent. In another section of these two reports, the monthly inflation rates are stated, comparing the growth of the price index of goods and services from the end of last year to April this year; this rate is reported as 0.5 percent by the Central Bank and 0.4 percent by the Statistical Center of Iran. The monthly inflation rate for April this year is the lowest monthly inflation rate for the first month of the year in the last fifty years, and in the past 25 years, the monthly inflation rate for April has always been higher than the reported figures of 0.5 and 0.4 percent. According to the Statistical Center of Iran's report on rural inflation for April this year, similar figures are encountered. The average inflation rate in rural areas of Iran during April reached 10.1 percent. The point-to-point inflation for April, comparing this year's first month to April of last year, shows a rate of 7.3 percent. The monthly inflation rate in rural areas of Iran during April this year was slightly higher than the monthly inflation rates reported by the Central Bank and the Statistical Center for urban areas, stabilizing at 0.7 percent. According to the Central Bank's report on April inflation, among the 12 main groups analyzed, the price index for the 'Recreation and Cultural Affairs' group saw a 3 percent decrease compared to the end of last year. The monthly inflation rate for the 'Communications' group was also zero in April this year, meaning the price index for this group remained unchanged from the end of last year to April this year. The Central Bank's analysis of changes in the price index of consumer goods and services in April shows that the highest monthly inflation rate among the main groups, with a growth of 1.1 percent, belonged to the 'Food and Beverages' group. The point-to-point inflation rate for the main groups in April according to the Central Bank's report also indicates that among the 12 groups analyzed, only the tobacco group experienced a half percent decrease in point-to-point inflation. However, the highest point-to-point inflation rate in the reported month according to the Central Bank was attributed to the 'Education' group, which recorded a point-to-point inflation of 21.8 percent. In the Statistical Center of Iran's report, the price index for the 'Food and Beverages' group recorded a growth of 0.8 percent in April. The point-to-point inflation rate for this group in the first month of this year was 5.4 percent, and the average inflation rate for the food and beverages group in the twelve months leading up to April reached 9.4 percent. An analysis of the price changes of 10 selected items by Radio Farda also shows that the average price change for this basket in April compared to the previous month (March) was a growth of 0.4 percent. Among these 10 items, the highest price increase of 43.4 percent was for tomatoes, while the highest price drop of 38.6 percent was recorded for onions. Table number one details the price changes of the selected goods basket over the two consecutive months from March to April. Changing the basis of comparison for the price changes of these items from March to April, which counts as a year-on-year comparison of price changes for the listed items in this basket, shows that the average price change for these items reached 11.6 percent. The record price increase in this context was for tomatoes, which saw an 83 percent price increase over these two periods. The most significant price drop was related to chicken meat, which decreased by 19.2 percent. These results come at a time when Hassan Rouhani, during the Labor Day commemoration, promised that inflation would reach single digits by the end of this year.