Arab Speculations About the Future of the Agreement

On Thursday, the nuclear negotiations between Iran and the 1+5 group in Vienna once again became one of the most important topics in Arab media. The media seems to believe that this day will be the last day of negotiations, and by the end, either a final agreement will be announced. The regional newspaper Asharq Al-Awsat published a report by its correspondent in Vienna titled 'Nuclear Agreement Awaiting the End of Political Disputes.' This report quotes a senior Western source who interviewed with Asharq Al-Awsat, stating: 'The disputes that have led to the extension of negotiations are political issues, and capitals have given a deadline to resolve them. An agreement was reached on technical issues within the framework of the Lausanne understanding. On Friday, we either agree or say goodbye.' The prolongation of negotiations is also addressed in an article by Ali Sam in the same newspaper titled 'Negotiations and Black Comedy.' This writer has a relatively pessimistic view of the outcomes of the negotiations, stating that the Vienna talks have moved out of the realm of politics and into a comedic phase. The author refers to some recent comments made by negotiators from both sides in discussions with the media, including: only 10 issues remain unresolved, we will announce an agreement by tomorrow at the latest, we are just a few steps away from a final agreement, we have concluded agreements on hundreds of issues, it does not matter if we reach an agreement this week or not, positive signs from Tehran, etc. The article in Asharq Al-Awsat states: 'I fear that negotiators under nervous pressure may have forgotten the subject of the negotiations and their goal, or perhaps all parties have agreed not to announce a failure in the negotiations and have decided to continue discussions to convince public opinion that they will continue this path even if it takes 10 years.' The author believes that the Islamic Republic of Iran thinks in the manner of the 1940s of the last century and believes that to have power, it must be armed with nuclear weapons. He writes that in response to the U.S. and its allies trying to prevent Tehran from achieving this goal, Iran has put itself under pressure: 'This is how Tehran laid the trap of negotiations, and it does not matter how long it takes; its only goal in prolonging the discussions is to achieve what it seeks.' The Lebanese newspaper As-Safir refers to a relative calm in Vienna on Wednesday, a day when, according to this newspaper, there were no leaked news, no meetings between the foreign ministers of Iran and the U.S., and no revolutionary initiatives from either side to resolve the issues. This newspaper refers to the last remarks of a U.S. official with Western journalists in a meeting where he stated: 'We have made real progress; we have overcome all possibilities of failure. The discussions are now centered on the implementation of the agreement and how to lift sanctions.' As-Safir writes that 'it is clear that Mohammad Javad Zarif has been tasked with concluding the agreement.' This newspaper concludes: 'Given the increasing ratio of American and Iranian conditions, it seems that an Iranian-American agreement is within reach and now closer than ever, not the opposite. This process reflects the feelings of both sides: the time has come to reach a conclusion. Therefore, both sides are raising issues together to reach an understanding. The 'no's of Ali Khamenei, the leader of the Iranian revolution, fall within this framework.' The newspaper Al-Mustaqbal also published an article titled 'Leader: Castro of Iran!' by Assad Haidar, in which he wrote: 'No nuclear agreement has lasted as long as the Iranian nuclear agreement.' Assad Haidar wrote: 'Undoubtedly, no matter how many concessions Iran makes, it will remain a powerful country... .' The author believes that the period after reaching an agreement until early February 2016 will be a time for verification between the Iranian and American sides, during which they will attempt to resolve regional conflicts while building trust. According to this article, 'It is natural that during this period, Iran will back down militarily; it will no longer seek to build a Shiite crescent from Aleppo to Aden with fire and stone. Washington, too, will ensure that whatever concessions it makes, the security of the Persian Gulf and its countries remains part of America's security. Therefore, there are red lines that neither the U.S. will retreat from nor Iran can violate.' The article in As-Safir also points to the consequences that will occur if the negotiations fail: 'The flames of fire will rise higher and burn fiercer, especially since Iranian hardliners in the government and the Revolutionary Guards will take power and will push moderates aside in the parliamentary elections. Also, in America, Republicans will find the failure of the negotiations an opportunity to end the extension for Democrats.' The author concludes his article by stating: 'After the agreement, things will be different than before. Just as it happened in Havana. Fidel Castro agreed and witnessed change. In Tehran, too, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei will live with this change and will accompany it. He will rein in the hardliners and open the doors of Iran for change and the return of America.'