Are Israel and Hezbollah on the Brink of a Major War?

Israel is currently emphasizing the need to distance Hezbollah forces from the southern Lebanon border to restore deterrence and ensure the security of hundreds of thousands of residents in the north of the country; a necessity that has intensified the crisis and increased the likelihood of an all-out war between the two sides. Following the outbreak of war in Gaza, which occurred after a surprise attack by the extremist group Hamas on Israeli territory on October 7, Hezbollah has effectively joined the military campaign against Israel in support of Hamas. The Hezbollah militia, the largest proxy arm of the Islamic Republic of Iran in the region, is recognized as a terrorist organization by the United States and the European Union, similar to Hamas. Recent diplomatic efforts by the U.S. and France to establish calm in southern Lebanon and northern Israel have failed, and Hezbollah has conditioned the cessation of attacks on Israel to the end of the war in Gaza. Some Israeli citizens and officials claim they have lost patience with the diplomatic solution and consider the current 'limited' attacks by the Israeli army against Hezbollah insufficient. Most experts invited to Channel 14, a television station supporting Benjamin Netanyahu, and other Israeli media have spoken about the necessity of a decisive operation against Hezbollah. On July 3, the Jerusalem Post wrote that where diplomatic efforts have failed, 'the time for bombing and attacking in Lebanon has come.' This reference by the Israeli newspaper points to the repeated but fruitless visits of Amos Hochstein, the U.S. special envoy for Lebanon and Israel. Israel is concerned about the potential infiltration of Hezbollah's 'Radwan' unit into the north and the possibility of a repeat of the October 7 Hamas attack in the south, prompting the evacuation of residents from northern villages and cities. In recent months, these residents have been relocated to hotels in more distant cities at the expense of Netanyahu's government; a move that many Israeli politicians and citizens now consider a 'big mistake' in hindsight. These families still feel 'trapped' in their hotel rooms after nine months and express strong dissatisfaction to Israeli media about the prolonged period of displacement and lack of prospects for returning home. Mayors of evacuated northern cities are also struggling to assist victims while navigating streets damaged by daily rocket attacks from Hezbollah. These local officials, speaking to reporters from the media, are calling for relief from the uncertainty in cities that they say have become 'ghost towns.' Israel's economy has heavily relied on domestic and foreign tourism income from the north over the decades, but now at least a thousand homes and dozens of production workshops have been seriously damaged, and tourist centers have closed. According to Channel Kan, the cost of repairing and restoring damaged homes over the past nine months has been estimated at $1.3 billion. Local residents and officials angrily assert that Hezbollah has effectively turned these areas into a 'security strip,' while Israel should have created a 'security strip' in southern Lebanon like in the 1980s. All evidence suggests that the answer to the question of whether a serious attack is imminent is yes. The number of troops stationed in the north, including the 'Golani' brigade, has exceeded 100,000 for months. With the reduction of military operations in Gaza and in the event of a war in Lebanon, many of the approximately 350,000 reserve forces who have been in Gaza for months and have recently returned home for rest will be sent to the northern front. Military reporters and former generals who can comment without the constraints of active military personnel have told Israeli media that a swift defeat of the extremist Hamas group would allow the army to transfer more personnel, both from active duty and reserves, to the north. Netanyahu's repeated comments about the need to receive arms shipments from the U.S., despite criticisms from the White House, seem to stem from his urgency to ensure sufficient ammunition, especially heavy bombs for operations in Lebanon. The Israeli army has announced that it has approved a plan to drive Hezbollah away from the border. An Israeli airstrike on a border village in southern Lebanon followed the escalation of tensions between Hezbollah and Israel due to the current war in Gaza. Israeli casualties in the northern regions over the past nine months include 11 civilians and 15 soldiers. This week's message from Israel's foreign minister on social media showed that the country knows it will suffer more damage if drawn into an all-out war with Hezbollah, but it appears to be prepared for it. Mikhail Malchiel, the Minister of Religious Affairs, stated on Channel 14 of Israeli television that he cannot speak about all the behind-the-scenes preparations publicly, but his ministry has considered the potential deaths of a significant number of people in the event of war. The director of the Israeli electricity supply company apologized for his recent comments that the country would face a long power outage and complete blackout in the event of an all-out war with Hezbollah. However, that alarming statement was enough to trigger a rush among the public to buy generators. The Guardian also reported on July 3 that extensive preparations are underway at the underground medical center in the city of Nahariya in Galilee for the possibility of this area becoming the frontline in the event of war. Israel is aware that Hezbollah, with over 150,000 rockets and missiles in its arsenal, has not yet utilized all of its capabilities, and in the event of war, the operational range of this militia could extend throughout Israel. The launch of rockets of various models and the expansion of targeting range in Israel by Hezbollah have not surprised the country. However, Hezbollah's increasing use of explosive and reconnaissance drones in non-border areas seems to be a new concern for Israel. The Israeli army has also announced that it is aware of the recent reconnaissance drone photography by Hezbollah in the skies over Haifa but refrained from targeting and destroying it to avoid potential harm to the residents of this port city.