Are the Poverty Combat Strategies of the Election Candidates Effective?

One of the main topics in the debates of the election candidates is the spread of poverty in Iranian society. Each candidate presents their own image, analysis, and strategy for combating poverty based on their specific perspective and understanding of the expectations of their audience. For instance, Eshaq Jahangiri emphasizes macroeconomic, bureaucratic, and managerial strategies, stating: "To reduce class disparities, the country's tax system must be strengthened, and accordingly, those who produce wealth in any way must pay taxes on it." Another candidate, Ebrahim Raisi, insists on increasing cash subsidies, claiming: "Cash subsidies can be increased for the lower deciles by up to three times, and absolute poverty can be eradicated." This same candidate, who looks to distribute public resources to hide poverty, says: "Attention to the deprived and underprivileged, especially the lower deciles, is possible with the existing capacities of the country without relying on others to solve our problems." In this context, the current mayor of Tehran, Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf, announced within the framework of implementing rent-seeking policies: "We promised 5 million jobs and know that the root of corruption and recession is the unemployment of our youth... We will increase subsidies for low-income groups... We need to reform the banking systems...; the banking systems that have their capital for 96% of the people and lend to only 4% of the privileged - our tax system must be reformed, and government expenditures must be reduced." Other candidates have also addressed the phenomenon of poverty in their own way, either openly or covertly, and have presented their approach to the issue of poverty. In general, the strategies of these candidates in addressing the issue of poverty can be divided into two approaches: bureaucratic-technocratic and populist. The first category includes government intervention and related institutions and tools for redistribution, including taxation and employment-generating construction activities or increasing welfare through government institutions. The second category is largely based on the distribution of public resources among the underprivileged, such as subsidies. In this context, what is notably absent is a comprehensive, dynamic, and modern perspective on the phenomenon of poverty and the promotion and encouragement of entrepreneurship as a fundamental structural solution to poverty in Iran. Currently, many economists consider the solution to the problem of poverty, especially among educated youth and women, not as a top-down government solution but as creating the conditions for promoting and encouraging entrepreneurship and their empowerment and presence in the labor market. Official statistics show that the youth unemployment rate is nearly double the overall unemployment average. On the other hand, the unemployment rate among women usually rises faster than that of men during unemployment crises. Thus, unemployment can often be found among youth, especially young women. Lack of skills and inability to participate in the labor market are significant reasons for the poverty of this group of the workforce. Poverty and its related factors in Iran are complex and institutionalized phenomena, and only their external levels can be examined and measured with variables such as income level, assets, and consumption. However, this is not the whole story, as poverty is simultaneously a social, political, and individual-psychological phenomenon. From a macroeconomic perspective, factors such as lack of economic growth, unemployment, and inflation explain poverty. Although poverty is a complex and institutionalized process, the understanding of election candidates is simplistic. For example, based on the populist understanding of the candidates, poverty is the result of unemployment and lack of access to money and living facilities, and thus, with the provision of these financial resources, poverty will be eliminated. However, this explanation, while necessary, is not sufficient, as the lack of economic growth or unequal distribution of resources is intertwined with various other economic variables, political and social variables, and even individual ones. The country's position in international trade and capital markets is among these other economic variables, as well as political, religious, and gender discrimination among these political and social variables. According to a comprehensive and modern approach, however, the most important ultimate factor of poverty is the loss of the ability to participate in the labor market, lack of skills and creativity of individuals, and economic marginalization. From a macroeconomic perspective, three fundamental variables that affect the level of poverty are the rate of economic growth, the inflation rate, and unemployment. Bruno, Ravallion, and Squire (1996) showed that the initial distribution of assets and income affects growth; countries with high inequality have had low growth, while countries with low inequality have had higher growth rates and faster poverty reduction during growth phases. Easterly and Fischer (2000) concluded in their study of the relationship between inflation and poverty using cross-country data that inflation worsens the situation of the poor and leads to the expansion of poverty. Watkins (1373) in his research titled "Unemployment, Poverty, and Psychological Anomalies" shows that unemployment leads to poverty and destitution, and poverty, in turn, creates many psychological and social anomalies. Although poverty is a complex and institutionalized process, the understanding of election candidates is simplistic. For example, based on the populist understanding of the candidates, poverty is the product of unemployment and lack of access to money and living facilities, and therefore, with the provision of these financial resources, poverty will be eliminated. Access to financial resources is also facilitated by paying subsidies, alms, and donations or creating jobs for individuals. Job creation is also one of the responsibilities of the government, which plays the role of the family father or benefactors!!, and one of its functions is the distribution of resources in various forms, including subsidies. The bureaucratic-technocratic perspective of the candidates, based on a knowledgeable understanding of affairs and from a managerial perspective, is, of course, different from the populist understanding. Such a perspective is based on analyzing macroeconomic variables such as economic growth, increasing government revenues, especially oil revenues, investment in construction, and activating the private sector within the framework of government construction plans. The solution to unemployment within the bureaucratic-technocratic perspective is a top-down and governmental approach. However, modern approaches see the phenomenon of poverty as having various levels, including social and external levels as well as individual and internal levels. Although macroeconomic variables such as increasing public and private investment, as well as economic growth and prosperity are conditions for expanding employment and thus reducing poverty, this is not the whole story. Reforming the tax system can also be effective in this path and can help in the endogenous growth of the Iranian economy and sustainable growth and poverty reduction. At the same time, the structure of society must be transformed so that job opportunities are distributed equally among citizens. On the other hand, according to such a perspective, empowering individuals trapped in poverty through activating their talents and strengthening their position in the labor market and increasing skills is how they can be assisted. Activating individuals' talents is also conditional on access to education and retraining. In other words, the empowerment of individuals means achieving the necessary capacities in individuals and social groups to enable them to play a role in the labor market. In such a scenario, individuals, instead of waiting for fate and receiving their jobs, engage in job creation and transform their role from passive workers or employees to economic and social entrepreneurs. The prerequisite for such a process is investing in the education and training of human resources and creating the conditions for the flourishing of entrepreneurial tendencies within them.