Assessments of the Islamic Republic's Failure to Establish Deterrence Against Israel

According to analysts, the recent efforts of the Islamic Republic to establish deterrence through direct attacks on Israel have largely failed, making the Iranian government more vulnerable to its main enemy. Reports indicate that recent retaliatory airstrikes by Israel on Islamic Republic positions in Iran have destroyed all of Iran's S-300 missile defense systems. This Israeli action was a response to missile attacks by the Islamic Republic on Israel that occurred earlier this month. Tehran claims it is still assessing the damage caused by the Israeli attacks. Nicholas Harris from the New Line Institute for Strategy and Policy in Washington tells Voice of America that the airstrikes demonstrated that Israel 'has qualitative military superiority in the war with Iran,' which impacts Iran's deterrence strategy. He adds that by targeting advanced S-300 air defense systems, Israel has succeeded in bypassing Iran's air defenses and attacking centers for the production of intercontinental ballistic missile components and the fuel for ballistic missiles, which are a significant part of the Islamic Republic's deterrence strategy. According to Harris, Israel intended to convey the message to the Islamic Republic that the Iranians are far behind the Israelis in terms of technological warfare. Nicole Gragowski, a fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace in the nuclear program, writes in the online publication 'Diwan' that 'Iran's efforts to deter Israel through direct attacks have had the opposite effect, revealing gaps in its own defense system.' This expert states that the recent Israeli attacks likely place the Islamic Republic in an even 'more precarious' position than before. Thomas Newdick, writing in 'War Zone,' agrees that the destruction of the Islamic Republic's S-300 systems paves the way for larger-scale direct Israeli attacks in the future. He further adds that this situation acts as both a potential opportunity for Israel and a deterrent factor against a response from the Islamic Republic. Newdick emphasizes that Israel certainly has various options in mind to take necessary actions in the event of a possible response from the Islamic Republic. Analysts believe that another factor in the Islamic Republic's deterrence strategy has been the development of relations with Syria, as well as regional militia groups including those in Iraq, Hamas in Gaza, Houthi rebels in Yemen, and Hezbollah in Lebanon. Israel has assassinated Hamas and Hezbollah leaders, including Yahya Sinwar and Hassan Nasrallah. Analysts state that although there are many uncertainties regarding the capabilities of these militia groups, the collection known as the 'Axis of Resistance' has been 'severely weakened' by Israeli attacks. Nicole Gragowski from Carnegie states that the Islamic Republic's response options are 'very limited.' She notes that the Iranian government's proxy groups have been weakened, and the capability and extent of Tehran's missile arsenal are also in doubt.