Associated Press: Disagreement Among Israeli Security Officials and Netanyahu Over JCPOA

The Associated Press reported from Israel about serious disagreements between Israeli security officials and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu regarding his insistence on canceling the JCPOA, the nuclear agreement between Iran and world powers. This American news agency published the report on Wednesday evening, October 11, just hours before Donald Trump's announcement of a new strategy regarding Iran. According to the Associated Press, if Trump cancels the JCPOA, he will receive the most encouragement from Israel, and in fact, Israel may be the only country to commend this action. Last month, Netanyahu discussed his positions on Iran during a meeting with Trump while attending the United Nations General Assembly; both Trump and Netanyahu strongly criticized Iran and the JCPOA in their speeches at the General Assembly, and Trump later announced that he would reveal his new strategy. The report indicates that any strict action by Trump against Iran will be met with approval and encouragement from Netanyahu. On the other hand, focusing on Netanyahu's stance on Iran simplifies the issue from the Israeli side, as several senior Israeli security officials who see the JCPOA as having many advantages and benefits for Israel are concerned that its cancellation would primarily harm Israel itself. These Israeli security officials argue that there are not many alternatives to canceling the JCPOA, and furthermore, America's credibility would be damaged, which would backfire on Israel, considering it sees itself as America's most important ally. The Associated Press notes that since Netanyahu stated last month at the UN General Assembly that the JCPOA should be 'canceled or fundamentally reformed,' senior Israeli security officials, despite recognizing the advantages of the JCPOA, now say that reforming the JCPOA is better than canceling it. Dr. Uzi Arad, a former national security advisor of Israel, is one of those who holds a different view from Netanyahu. He told the Associated Press: 'Why should we lose the advantages of the JCPOA?' On the other hand, Michael Oren, Netanyahu's minister without portfolio who was recently his ambassador to the U.S., recently wrote in the New York Times that canceling the JCPOA is not a disaster at all and that it may have effectively already been canceled, and a series of 'crushing sanctions' should be imposed on Iran. However, Dr. Uzi Arad stated that canceling the JCPOA would bring many calamities upon Israel itself, and it would be better to maintain it and pressure the international community on Iran to negotiate on other issues such as missile development plans. Efraim Halevy, former head of Mossad, is also one of those who supported maintaining the JCPOA. Retired General Yaakov Amidror, a former national security advisor to Netanyahu, also told the Associated Press that he believes canceling the JCPOA is fundamentally impossible. Yoel Guzansky, a former member of the Israeli National Security Council, told the Associated Press that throwing the ball into Congress's court by Trump is a hasty action that may fail under Congress's counterfire. Khemi Shalev, a prominent journalist at Haaretz, the most critical newspaper of the current right-wing government, told the news agency that Netanyahu is 'playing with fire' by insisting on canceling the JCPOA. Dan Shapiro, the last ambassador of Barack Obama to Israel, who is Jewish and still lives in Israel with his family despite the end of his ambassadorship, told the Associated Press that the uncertainty of Israeli security officials regarding the situation after the cancellation of the JCPOA is 'the biggest concern' of the Israeli security apparatus. However, the Associated Press points out that Dr. Uzi Arad, one of Netanyahu's staunchest opponents, is no longer utilized as an advisor by him. Netanyahu does not give credibility to internal opponents like Efraim Halevy. Nevertheless, when Meir Dagan, the former head of Mossad, was alive and strongly opposed a potential military strike by Israel on Iran's nuclear facilities, considering it to have 'catastrophic' consequences for Israel, Netanyahu, despite all his differences with Dagan, practically respected his opinion. Ehud Barak, a former prime minister and a staunch opponent of Netanyahu, recently criticized his successor for pressuring Trump to cancel the JCPOA. However, Netanyahu claims that Ehud Barak is a 'disillusioned' politician. During the JCPOA negotiations, Israel continuously spoke of a 'military option' to defend itself against the 'vital threat of Iran acquiring a nuclear bomb.' Shortly after the JCPOA, Israel managed to convince the Obama administration, with full congressional support, to grant $38 billion in military aid to the Israeli army. However, no one has yet mentioned the potential future concessions that Israel might seek in exchange for agreeing to the new status.