Associated Press Report Indicates Efforts by JCPOA Opponents

Just one day before the start of the fourth meeting of the Joint Commission of the JCPOA in Vienna, the Associated Press reported on Monday in an exclusive report about the reduction of some key restrictions on Iran's nuclear program, ten years after the implementation of the JCPOA, stating that such a reduction would halve Iran's nuclear 'breakout time.' According to this report, which does not disclose its sources, with the end of the ten-year period set by the JCPOA, the replacement of collected centrifuges with advanced centrifuges that enrich uranium five times faster will reduce Iran's access time to the capability of building a nuclear weapon from one year to six months. Behrouz Bayat, a nuclear expert, says that the publication of this report shows that opponents of the JCPOA in Iran and the United States have not remained silent: 'I consider this report an attempt to disrupt the progress of the JCPOA. The reality is that it was supposed that after ten years, enrichment would be somewhat free, although it is stated in all agreements made under the JCPOA that Iran may even obtain permission for some activities before the end of the period with the agency's consent. Given that Iran has placed its nuclear program under the agency's control indefinitely by signing the Additional Protocol, the danger mentioned in the Associated Press report is not real.' Meanwhile, according to the nuclear agreement between Iran and the 5+1 countries, the first milestone of the JCPOA will be the 'Transition Day,' which will occur eight years after the start of the JCPOA, at which time the International Atomic Energy Agency, following its monitoring activities, must submit its final report on Iran's nuclear program and its nature to the United Nations Security Council. Previously, Olli Heinonen, a former official of the International Atomic Energy Agency who is considered a critic of the JCPOA, stated in an interview with Radio Farda that this time - the Transition Day - is a significant moment in the JCPOA and said: 'From that day forward, many issues will change. Firstly, Iran's nuclear program will be recognized as a peaceful program at that time. As a result, it will be much easier to acquire new equipment and produce better centrifuges. They can already carry out development work, but at that time a very different atmosphere will be created for this work. At that time, Iran will not need to obtain approval before importing dual-use materials and equipment; it will only inform the Security Council in this regard. After the tenth year, on the 'Cancellation Day,' these restrictions will also be lifted. Consequently, after the final conclusion, we will witness a very active and technically suitable enrichment program that is not necessarily large because some restrictions will remain. If Iran decides, in the twelfth or thirteenth year, it can obtain enough enriched uranium to produce a nuclear weapon within a few weeks. Additionally, inspections by the agency will decrease, resulting in a reduction of inspections and access.' Nevertheless, Mark Toner, a spokesperson for the U.S. State Department, in response to the Associated Press report, stated that there is no secret document or agreement in place, telling the Persian section of Voice of America that 'preventing Iran from accessing nuclear weapons - and our ability to monitor its nuclear program and ensure its peaceful nature - will remain forever.' However, what impact will the publication of this report, coinciding with the fourth round of JCPOA talks, have on the continuation of its implementation? In response to this question, Behrouz Bayat says: 'These actions will not disrupt the JCPOA. Such efforts may slow the progress of the JCPOA. Similar actions have been taken before and will occur in the future. Because the assumption of such writings is that Iran is a fixed entity that will not change in the next 15 years and that a stubborn regime like that of Ayatollah Khamenei will always govern it. While no phenomenon in the world is permanent, significant changes may occur in the next 15 years. The basis of this article is the notion that the Iranian government will not change in the next 15 years and that a government intending to continue its enrichment will eventually build a bomb.' The Associated Press report was published while, in recent days, coinciding with the anniversary of the Vienna nuclear agreement, the President and Secretary of State of the United States reiterated that this agreement has rolled back Iran's nuclear program and made the world safer.