Ayatollah Khamenei and the Fate of the JCPOA

According to the website of the office of the Supreme Leader of the Islamic Republic of Iran, Mr. Khamenei stated that he does not recommend rejecting or approving this agreement to the members of the Islamic Consultative Assembly (Parliament). He said, "In our opinion, it is not advisable to exclude the Parliament from this matter. Because this is an issue that the country has been aware of for two years. Now it has reached some results. The Parliament must get involved. Now what should the Parliament do? I have no recommendations for the Islamic Consultative Assembly." Previously, Ahmad Jannati, the Secretary of the Guardian Council, and Mohammad Yazdi, the Chairman of the Assembly of Experts, had supported this view of the Parliament. Meanwhile, officials from Hassan Rouhani's government have stated that there is no need to review the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) in the Parliament because the mentioned agreement does not require the President's signature and is not considered a treaty. Kourosh Zaim, a member of the Central Council of the National Front of Iran in Tehran, believes that the Supreme Leader's stance does not tip the balance in favor of the Parliament. He said, "These statements do not tip the balance in favor of the Parliament but rather somewhat satisfy them that they have been taken into account. In any case, I do not think that even if this matter is reviewed by this Parliament, it will reach a vote; the review and approval of the agreement, if deemed appropriate, will be left for the next Parliament." At the same time, Reza Alijani, former editor of Iran Farda magazine in Paris, says that Ayatollah Khamenei did not clarify how the Islamic Consultative Assembly would enter the issue of reviewing the nuclear agreement. According to Reza Alijani, "What Mr. Khamenei said was again sitting between two chairs, while it is highly likely that, given that more prominent and connected individuals in the office have also indicated this matter, it will ultimately be reviewed in the Supreme National Security Council and the Parliament will give advisory opinions to the Supreme National Security Council." Ayatollah Khamenei identified the United States as the main party in the nuclear negotiations and accused its officials of what he called "bad talking," demanding clarity on this issue. The Supreme Leader of the Islamic Republic of Iran, referring to the issue of maintaining the framework of sanctions reflected in the statements of American officials, said: "If we conceded in some cases during the negotiations and gave some concessions, it was mainly to lift the sanctions; otherwise, what was the point of being present at the negotiations?" According to him, if the sanctions are not to be lifted, then there will be no deal. Ayatollah Khamenei also implicitly threatened that if the opposing side suspends the sanctions, the Islamic Republic will also carry out its actions to the extent of suspension. Kourosh Zaim, a member of the Central Council of the National Front of Iran in Tehran, says that a suspension-for-suspension approach changes nothing. According to Mr. Zaim, "The fact that sanctions are not lifted is a threat to an event that will not happen. Especially now that there is enough vote for Mr. Obama's veto in the U.S. Senate. Even before the U.S. takes action to lift the sanctions, with the positive reports that the International Atomic Energy Agency has given on Iran's performance, the European Union and the Security Council will do their part. I believe he has taken this position knowing that such a thing cannot happen to calm the hardliners that we will not show weakness either." The Supreme Leader of the Islamic Republic of Iran did not deny that some of the statements of American officials are to convince what he called "internal rivals," but he said that what is officially stated needs a response, and if not responded to, in Khamenei's opinion, the opponent's statements will be consolidated. Reza Alijani, former editor of Iran Farda magazine in Paris, believes that the Supreme Leader of the Islamic Republic of Iran is trying to align the agreed issues behind the scenes with the realities on the scene and says: "Therefore, the vetting Parliament in Iran, which has disempowered itself with that single article and entrusted all powers to the Supreme National Security Council, is unlikely to have a strong and effective entry into this important issue afterward." However, Kourosh Zaim considers this stance related to internal issues in Iran. He states, "Mr. Yazdi and Mr. Jannati in the Guardian Council have taken a strong stance regarding Mr. Rouhani's demands that the Guardian Council should only oversee and not interfere, and the strong stance of the commander of the IRGC against Mr. Rouhani that the military should not interfere in politics and elections. This means he is actually saying I am in charge and there is no need for you to express opinions. Mr. Kerry's statements, which still have military options on the table and want to control the atmosphere for the congressional vote, provided an excuse for Mr. Khamenei to take a similar stance." The Islamic Consultative Assembly passed a bill on June 21, requiring the government to preserve nuclear achievements, stating that the lifting of sanctions must be included in the final agreement text regarding Iran's nuclear program and must be executed on the day Iran fulfills its commitments.