Ayatollah Khamenei and the Selection of a Successor

This is the latest public statement by the leader of the Islamic Republic regarding the third leader of the system based on the absolute rule of the jurist: "The Assembly of Experts must remain revolutionary; it must think revolutionarily and act revolutionarily... In the selection of the future leader, consider God. The likelihood that this upcoming period will be afflicted by this test is not small; when it comes time to choose a leader, they should set aside considerations and formalities; they should keep God in mind, consider their duties, consider the needs of the country; based on this, a leader should be chosen; in our view, the most important duty is to ensure vigilance. If there is any negligence at this stage and in this great duty, fundamental problems will arise." Ayatollah Khamenei expressed these remarks during a meeting with current members of the Assembly of Experts. Although he has spoken on this matter before, it seems that following the recent elections of the Assembly of Experts, he has become increasingly sensitive about the selection of the third leader of the Islamic Republic in his absence. It can be confidently predicted that the head of the political system will address this issue (the selection of his successor) with heightened emphasis and sensitivity in his first meeting with the members of the fifth Assembly of Experts (the new experts). Regardless of the fact that the head of the political system does not attribute any supervisory authority to the Assembly of Experts — and he makes this evident in his recent remarks — it is difficult to accept that Ayatollah Khamenei would take a neutral and impartial stance on such an important issue as the selection of the future leader and leave the matter entirely to the members of the Assembly of Experts. When the head of the system explicitly comments on the composition of the government and especially some ministers (including the ministers of interior, intelligence, foreign affairs, guidance, and even science), and furthermore, when he considers himself entitled to intervene regarding members of parliament, it is hard to believe that he would remain silent or passive regarding his successor. Another aspect of Ayatollah Khamenei's concern about intervention and the importance of his involvement in the issue of selecting a successor relates to his desired political-ideological outlook. He recently stated that "the Assembly of Experts must remain revolutionary; it must think revolutionarily and act revolutionarily." With such a starting point and assumption — which has been repeatedly emphasized by the head of the political system — his direct and indirect intervention in the matter of determining the third leader of the Islamic Republic becomes more understandable. Ayatollah Khamenei has certainly learned enough from the experience of selecting a deputy leader in the first half of the 1980s and the subsequent dismissal of that individual (Ayatollah Montazeri). Hashemi Rafsanjani explained in this regard that "from the very first days that Imam came, we were worried about his condition. The Imam was 81 years old when he entered the country. After returning to the country, it did not take long for his heart ailment to arise, and he underwent surgery. Our concern was serious that God forbid, if something were to happen to the Imam in this situation where the revolution had not yet stabilized, what would happen to the revolution? A successor must definitely be chosen for him. After the principle of the guardianship was approved with extensive powers, appointing a successor for that position, which the legitimacy of the system depended on, seemed very important. This discussion was among us, and we also raised it with the Imam that we must think so that there is never a vacuum in leadership." He refers to detailed discussions with Ayatollah Khomeini and an agreement with him on the issue of selecting Ayatollah Montazeri as the successor in his memoirs (November 1985), stating: In the Assembly of Experts session, the text for Ayatollah Montazeri's leadership was proposed. After much discussion, Mr. Khamenei's proposal was approved with minor amendments. He was introduced "as the people's elected successor to the Imam and approved by the Assembly of Experts." With such experience, and based on the importance of the position of the leader of the Islamic Republic in the real and legal structure of the political system, one can confidently speak of serious and hidden discussions behind the scenes of power regarding the selection of Ayatollah Khamenei's successor. This is especially evident considering the apparent illness of the 77-year-old leader of the system. In such a context, and given the increasing autocracy of the head of the system and the expanded authoritarianism at the core of power, as well as the realities that have gripped the leadership, government, and country, it is evident that Ayatollah Khamenei will take necessary measures regarding this matter (the selection of a successor) as long as he is alive. He will utilize his close relationships with the security-political current governing the IRGC to the fullest extent to choose a person who is most aligned with that security-military current. Ayatollah Khamenei may choose a path similar to that taken by Ayatollah Khomeini initially (designating a successor) before his passing; or perhaps he will explicitly indicate and emphasize his preferred option to the aligned security-military current and also to the allies present in the Assembly of Experts; whichever path he chooses, it does not affect this assessment and view that the head of the system will not postpone the selection of the third leader to the future after his passing. It is difficult to doubt this assessment that in the not-so-long list of potential candidates for the third leadership position in the Islamic Republic, Ayatollah Khamenei would prefer someone like Sadegh Larijani over Hassan Rouhani and even a moderate figure like Hashemi Shahroudi; and it is predictable that the security forces governing the IRGC would also align with such a view. The active engagement and effective role of the current leader in the issue of selecting the next leader does not mean that his desired situation will be realized through the Assembly of Experts; actors like Hashemi Rafsanjani and Rouhani can play an effective role in this process. It is not in vain that Ayatollah Khamenei reminds the Assembly of Experts: "They should set aside considerations and formalities."