Ayatollah Khamenei Describes the Likelihood of Traditional War Against Iran as 'Very Weak'

The leader of the Islamic Republic, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, stated that the likelihood of a military war against Iran is 'very weak' and addressed the forces of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) by saying, 'In the future, Khorramshahr-like challenges lie ahead; of course, not in the battlefield of military war, but in a field that is harder than military warfare.' According to the state news agency IRNA, Khamenei, speaking at Imam Hussein University affiliated with the IRGC on Tuesday, June 3, claimed that American officials have made 'great efforts' to bring 'the centers of decision-making and policymaking of the country under their control, but they have not succeeded and ... will not be able to.' The Iranian leader also stated that the U.S. is 'trying to infiltrate using various and complex tools to change the identity of the Iranian youth to one that is favored by imperialism.' Khamenei has repeatedly warned about what he calls 'U.S. efforts to infiltrate decision-making centers' in Iran following the Vienna nuclear agreement, and he has described combating 'infiltration' as one of the IRGC's duties. He said on Tuesday, 'Of course, they are not hopeless about infiltration, and in such circumstances, a great responsibility lies on the shoulders of all those concerned for the Iranian nation and the Islamic system, including the IRGC.' The leader of Iran told the IRGC forces, 'Know that in the future, Khorramshahr-like challenges lie ahead; of course, not in the battlefield of military war, but in a field that does not have the ruins of military warfare and, on the contrary, brings prosperity but is harder than military warfare.' Khamenei emphasized that they do not advocate cutting off relations with the world and isolating themselves. Following the Islamic Republic leader's warnings about U.S. 'infiltration,' some of his close associates, including Sadegh Amoli Larijani, the head of the judiciary, have identified one of the 'serious grounds for enemy infiltration' as 'accepting Western development models,' while Hassan Rouhani, the President of Iran, has repeatedly called for 'constructive engagement with the world.' Meanwhile, Khamenei dismissed claims that 'utilizing internal capacities means cutting off relations with the world' as 'an unfounded accusation from some opponents.' He stated, 'We have never believed in cutting off relations with the world and isolating ourselves; rather, we say to have political communications and economic exchanges, but do not forget your main identity and character.' Khamenei's remarks come as he previously stated in a meeting with members of the Assembly of Experts that if 'all the surroundings of our country were surrounded,' the IRGC would not face problems in missile production, saying, 'This means progress.' In contrast, Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani, the head of the Expediency Discernment Council of Iran, on March 22, 2016, without directly referring to Khamenei's remarks, stated: 'Can we be happy about being isolated in today's world?' Khamenei also referred to topics such as 'nuclear energy,' 'missile power,' and 'human rights' raised by Western countries as 'pretexts.' He said, 'The main reason for all this enmity and pretext-making is not complying with imperialism, because if the Iranian nation were willing to comply, they would certainly have accepted missile power and nuclear energy, and human rights would never have been mentioned.' Khamenei pointed out that 'the uproar' regarding Iran's missile program will have no effect, and 'they can do nothing.' Following several missile tests by Iran in the second half of 2015, four countries— the U.S., the U.K., France, and Germany— stated in a letter to the rotating president of the Security Council and Ban Ki-moon, the Secretary-General of the United Nations, that Iran's missile tests, which included missiles capable of carrying nuclear warheads, showed 'disregard' for Security Council Resolution 2231 and required an appropriate response. The Islamic Republic of Iran claims that its missile tests do not violate this resolution or the JCPOA. Despite this, the U.S. sanctioned six companies and two individuals related to Iran's missile program on April 5, 2016. Khamenei also criticized 'some illogical actions,' stating, 'Sometimes some individuals and youth, who may be righteous and faithful, create uproar and chaos due to opposition to a person or a speech, disrupting that assembly, while I have never agreed with such actions that have no benefit, and I believe that the benefit lies in explanation and correct and intelligent work.' He added, 'Of course, sometimes some individuals carry out these wrong actions out of ulterior motives and then pretend that it is the work of Hezbollah and faithful elements, so one must be completely vigilant.' Khamenei's statements come after he strongly criticized the 'attribution' of extremism to 'Hezbollah' individuals following the attack on the Saudi embassy, stating that 'just because an issue like the Saudi embassy and the British embassy arises, which is very bad and harmful to the country and Islam, do not use it as an excuse to attack faithful youth.' In recent years, many speeches by reformist figures or critics of the Islamic Republic have been attacked, leaving these speeches unfinished. According to reports, some of the attackers at these speeches have been affiliated with the Basij and the IRGC. For instance, Ali Motahari, a representative from Tehran, implicitly identified the attackers in Shiraz in March 2015 as being affiliated with the IRGC, and his lawyer, Mostafa Torkhamdani, reported that the 'commanders' of the attack on his client held 'military positions,' and the second part of this case is 'under investigation' in the military court of Fars province.