Ballistic Missiles and Concerns of the IRGC

Four days after the Iranian Foreign Minister and the EU's High Representative for Foreign Affairs announced the end of the nuclear marathon and the achievement of an agreement, several Iranian political and military officials stated that Tehran's military capabilities, including access to ballistic missiles, are "non-negotiable." According to the Fars News Agency, affiliated with the IRGC, Rasoul Sanaei Rad, head of the IRGC's political office, emphasized that the eight-year limitation on Iran's access to ballistic missiles is a "misuse" and "interference" by the West in Iran's military affairs. This senior IRGC commander stated that even at this stage, the draft agreement must be amended, and sections that are "interfering" in Iran's military affairs should be removed. Before the remarks of the head of the IRGC's political office, his superiors, namely Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the Supreme Leader, and Major General Mohammad Ali Jafari, the commander of the IRGC, had expressed their concerns about the continuation of arms sanctions against Tehran. Jafari stated that "there are legitimate concerns," and the Supreme Leader, as is his usual practice, opened the way for such positions to be expressed. Ayatollah Khamenei, referring generally to the Islamic Republic's insistence on maintaining "defensive and security capabilities," said in his Eid al-Fitr sermon: "Whether this text is approved or not, by the grace of God, no misuse will be allowed; no one will be allowed to undermine the fundamental principles of the Islamic system; [...] The Islamic Republic will never succumb to the excessive demands of the enemy regarding the preservation of its defensive and security capabilities - especially in this threatening environment created by enemies." But what is the reason behind the insistence of the leader and some Iranian officials on maintaining ballistic missiles? Hossein Aryan, a military expert in Britain, states: "From a military perspective, Iran currently does not have intercontinental missiles. However, what lies behind this issue goes beyond nuclear talks. In general, the U.S. does not want Iran to have intercontinental missiles and to develop its missile program more than it already has because it is aware of the negative impacts on its allies, namely Saudi Arabia and Israel. Just two days before the comprehensive nuclear agreement was finalized, the Chairman of the U.S. Joint Chiefs of Staff, General Dempsey, told Congress that we do not want Iran to have intercontinental missiles and the capability to launch a missile that could reach the U.S., even with a conventional warhead. In my opinion, Iran has no choice - if it wants to implement the nuclear agreement - it must also enforce arms and missile sanctions. I believe the IRGC commanders have just woken up and are saying there is a concern here." In the Islamic Consultative Assembly, just hours after Ayatollah Khamenei's remarks, representatives began to express their support for the Supreme Leader's positions. Representatives including Mohammad Ismail Kowsari and Seyyed Mahdi Hashemi from Tehran were among the first to explicitly call for changes to the text of the agreement. Kowsari stated in an interview with Fars News Agency that "ballistic missiles are no longer classified as nuclear weapons but rather as conventional weapons, and it is essential that the related clauses be amended." Youssef Molaei, a professor of international law at Tehran University, commented on the possibility of changing the text of the agreement as proposed by Ismail Kowsari: "You see, the parties to an agreement can always adjust what they have agreed upon, but this depends on the political will of these parties. If one party does not agree, then no change will occur. I want to say that this discussion exists legally, there is no problem. But law follows political will; if political will is established, legal matters become mostly ceremonial." In the text of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), published on July 14, it was stipulated that Iran should not engage in any activity related to intercontinental (ballistic) missiles capable of carrying nuclear weapons. This clause of the agreement will be valid from the day of acceptance of the JCPOA text for eight years and may be lifted following the IAEA's conclusion regarding the peaceful nature of all nuclear activities within Iran.