Behind the Suspension of 'Mazut Burning' and Power Outages in Iran

The government of Masoud Pezeshkian claims that to prevent air pollution, the consumption of mazut in three power plants in Isfahan, Karaj, and Arak has been halted, while 11 other power plants will continue to use mazut. The justification for stopping mazut burning in these three plants is related to air pollution, while officials from Tavanir recently reported a severe shortage of mazut and diesel reserves in power plants but did not disclose the reason. Until a few years ago, Iran faced increasing gas shortages only in winter, and the burning of mazut in power plants rose from 3.5 billion liters in the year 1396 (2017-2018) to eight billion liters last year. However, since last year, Iran has faced gas shortages in all seasons, leading to a 100% and 80% increase in the consumption of mazut and diesel in electricity generation plants in the first half of 1403 (2024) compared to the same period last year. This situation has resulted in a significant decrease in the liquid fuel reserves of power plants in October this year, dropping to 42% compared to the same period last year, despite a 50% increase in mazut allocation and a 26% increase in diesel allocation to power plants. Such a massive volume of mazut and diesel consumption in power plants during the warm seasons indicates a severe gas shortage crisis in the country. If Iran supplied 94% of its electricity from gas in the first half of last year, this figure has fallen to 86% in the same period this year, and in autumn and winter, when the gas shortage peaks, the government must either supply half of the country's electricity with mazut and diesel, for which it practically lacks the necessary liquid fuel, or resort to widespread blackouts. Tracking companies, including Vortexa, also show that Iran's daily mazut exports have been on a sharp decline since 2021, dropping from 400,000 barrels to 220,000 barrels last year, and this figure is expected to decrease further this year. From the winter of 1402 until early autumn this year, Iran exported 50,000 to 100,000 barrels of mazut daily to China, but this figure has fallen to 20,000 barrels since mid-September. These figures clearly indicate the enormous growth in mazut consumption in Iran over the past three years, which continues. Iranian officials state that the country faced a daily gas shortage of 270 million cubic meters last winter, and this figure is likely to increase to 300 million cubic meters this year. Last year, alongside eight billion liters of mazut burning, 16 billion liters of diesel were also consumed in power plants. Meanwhile, the country has faced a diesel shortage since last year and can only increase mazut consumption in power plants alongside the gas shortage. Iranian power plants require a daily consumption of 280 million cubic meters of gas, equivalent to about 225 million liters of mazut and diesel. Iran's daily mazut production is about 65 million liters, and diesel production is 110 million liters. It should also be noted that the daily diesel consumption in the transportation sector is 56 million liters, and these fuels are also used in other sectors such as industry, and the growth of these polluting fuels' consumption in power plants cannot continue indefinitely.