Belgian Physicists: Both Sides Are Lying About the Downing of the Russian Plane

Using physical calculations to interpret and comment on current events, especially political incidents, is not a common method. However, Tom Van Dorslaer and Giovanni Lapenta, two physicists from Leuven University in Belgium, have demonstrated using simple Newtonian mechanics on the blog of this well-known Belgian university that both Turkey's and Russia's explanations of how the Russian fighter jet fell are incorrect. They state in their blog post that neither country's explanations are accurate, based on data from the crash scene and flight maps published by the Turkish and Russian governments. The information released: The Turkish government and armed forces claim that the Russian fighter pilots ignored several repeated warnings about entering Turkish airspace. The Turkish military announced that the fighter jet was warned ten times within five minutes, and after ignoring these warnings, the Turkish Prime Minister personally ordered the downing of the Russian fighter. Turkish officials say the jet was in their airspace for seventeen seconds. However, a scientific examination shows that in a video of the incident published online, one of the two Russian jets is hit and falls after about 30 seconds. The Leuven physicists write that since vertical motion depends only on gravity, the speed and trajectory of the jet's fall can be used to calculate that it was flying at a maximum altitude of 4500 meters. This figure aligns with Turkey's claim that the Russian fighter was flying at 5800 meters. From the map published by Turkey, it can be seen that the Russian jet fell eight kilometers from the point it was hit, meaning it traveled eight kilometers from the moment of impact to its fall. A simple calculation shows that the jet's speed at the moment of impact was about 980 kilometers per hour, which is normal for that altitude. Up to this point in the assessment and calculations, there appears to be no issue. The two physicists then compare the speed of the Russian fighter with the two-kilometer distance that, according to the map published by Turkey, the jet covered. The first discrepancy becomes apparent here. A fighter jet moving at 980 kilometers per hour would cover a distance of 2 kilometers in 7 seconds, not the 17 seconds claimed by Turkish officials. If it took 17 seconds to cover this distance, the jet's speed would have to be 420 kilometers per hour. The incident video shows that this is not the case. Therefore, the physicists have found a flaw in Turkey's claim at this stage of their calculations: Physicists: 1, Turkey: 0. The map published by Turkey states that the Turkish military warned the Russian jet ten times within five minutes. A jet moving at 980 kilometers per hour would cover about 80 kilometers in five minutes. Based on this evidence, the Leuven physicists conclude, 'How could the Turkish Air Force predict that the Russian jet would cover such a long distance and enter Turkish airspace? Fighter jets are highly maneuverable, and this Russian jet could have changed its course at the last moment and not entered Turkish airspace. Therefore, the warnings to the Russian pilots at the moment they were issued were merely speculation.' According to these calculations, the warnings from Turkey were not issued while the Russian jet was in their airspace, unless the Turkish air defense personnel can communicate at such an impossible speed that they could issue ten warnings in seven seconds. This is another flaw that the physicists found in Turkey's explanations: Physicists: 2, Turkey: 0. The map published by the Russian Ministry of Defense shows the red line for the Russian Sukhoi and the blue line for the Turkish F-16. In such disputes, the blame is never entirely on one side. In the realm of geopolitics, truth is always fluid and often ambiguous. The map published by Russia shows that after being hit, its fighter jet turns 90 degrees, which is practically impossible. According to the Leuven physicists, this situation is only plausible if the impact on the plane was stronger than the jet's center of gravity. The physicists explain, 'A 90-degree change in the jet's trajectory can only be influenced by the impact of an object that is significantly heavier or faster than the aircraft itself.' From this part of the calculations, it can be concluded that contrary to the Russian government's claim, this jet did not actively intend to avoid entering Turkish airspace. Thus, up to this point in the calculations, we can say: Physicists: 3, Turkey: 0, Russia: 0. Certainly, anyone can draw their own conclusions from these calculations based on their political considerations. These two physicists do not engage in the political discussions surrounding this event; their sole aim is to distinguish scientific facts from interpretations and justifications.