Biden's Concern Over Iran's Attack on Israel Following the Death of Hassan Nasrallah

CNN reported that the Biden administration is concerned that the Islamic Republic may seek to launch a military attack on Israel following the death of Hassan Nasrallah, the Secretary-General of Hezbollah in Lebanon. On Monday, October 1, CNN published this report, stating that due to this concern, military cooperation between the U.S. and Israel in defense plans to prevent an attack has been strengthened. At the same time, the Haaretz newspaper quoted a Western diplomat on the same day, stating that the Biden administration has warned Iran through a third country that if Tehran attacks Israel, the response from Israel will be very severe, and the U.S. will not be able to restrain Israel. According to Haaretz, 'the Western diplomat aware of the content of the U.S. warning to Iran,' who spoke with the newspaper, stated that the message was conveyed to Tehran by a European country that maintains diplomatic relations with Iran. Hezbollah, a paramilitary group formed over four decades ago in Lebanon with the help of Iranian Revolutionary Guard commanders, has evolved into a political party and controls a significant portion of the Shia-populated southern suburbs of Beirut and southern Lebanon near the northern border of Israel. A U.S. government source refrained from providing details about the type of attack Iran might consider against Israel in response to Hassan Nasrallah's death. However, the aforementioned senior source told CNN that actions Iran is currently undertaking have raised concerns about the possibility of such an attack. During a direct military attack by the Islamic Republic on Israel, which occurred on April 16 of this year with the launch of at least 313 cruise missiles, ballistic missiles, and explosive drones, the Biden administration led a multinational military coalition to defend Israel, resulting in 99 percent of the projectiles being intercepted and destroyed. This Iranian attack was in response to an Israeli bombing attributed to the 'consulate' of Iran in Damascus, where Mohammad Reza Zahedi, a senior commander of the Quds Force in Lebanon and Syria, was killed; Abbas Nilforushan, Zahedi's successor, was also killed on October 1 in an Israeli attack on Hassan Nasrallah's command center. The U.S. Department of Defense announced on Sunday night that if Iran or its proxy groups are seeking to target U.S. personnel or interests in the region, the United States will take 'all necessary actions' to defend itself. Patrick Ryder, a Pentagon spokesperson, referred to the current military capabilities of the U.S. in the region, mentioning the aircraft carrier Abraham Lincoln. Hassan Nasrallah, the Secretary-General of Hezbollah, who has led the most significant Iranian proxy force in the Middle East for the past 32 years, was killed in an Israeli airstrike on the evening of October 1 at Hezbollah's main command center in the Dahiyeh area of Lebanon. Dahiyeh, a Shia-populated suburb in southern Beirut, has been under strong Hezbollah control for decades. In response to Hezbollah's attacks on its territory over the past year, which have caused tens of thousands of residents in northern areas to evacuate, Israel has intensified operations against this group over the past two weeks, targeting not only the Secretary-General of this group but also dozens of other potential successors and its senior command in successive military strikes. Hezbollah has been engaged in warfare with Israel since the day after Hamas's attack on Israeli territory on October 7 last year; a group recognized as terrorist by the U.S. and the European Union. Last week, Israel urged Hezbollah to refrain from aligning with Hamas and not to tie its fate to this group in Gaza. However, Hassan Nasrallah, in his last speech on September 20, vowed that despite the deaths of senior commanders and the 'heavy blows' his group has suffered from Israeli operations, it would continue to attack Israel. Eight days after this last speech, he himself, along with 20 other senior Hezbollah officials, was killed. The United States considers Hezbollah a terrorist organization, while the European Union has blacklisted its military wing but does not regard its political wing as terrorist. Hezbollah's political faction also has representatives in the Lebanese parliament. Hassan Nasrallah was the most crucial asset for Iran in the region, emphasizing that his group receives money, weapons, and all its needs from Iran. The New York Times previously reported that Hassan Nasrallah's death has depressed Iran's leadership and dealt a serious blow to its strongest arm in the Middle East. Two Israeli and American officials told Axios on Saturday, October 7, that Israel has asked the U.S. to take measures to deter Iran from attacking Israel. Axios reported that this request was made during a phone call between Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant and his American counterpart on Friday during the bombing of Dahiyeh and the killing of Nasrallah, with General Lloyd Austin emphasizing that the U.S. is 'committed to defending Israel.' Joe Biden stated that the U.S. was not aware of Israel's operations to kill Nasrallah in advance and instructed his Secretary of Defense on Saturday to strengthen 'the defensive posture of U.S. military forces in the Middle East to prevent aggression and reduce the risk of a regional war.' Ali Khamenei, the leader of the Islamic Republic of Iran, in his statements regarding Hassan Nasrallah's death, did not refer to revenge against Israel, contrary to his statement two months prior about the necessity of 'blood vengeance' following the killing of Ismail Haniyeh, the head of Hamas's political bureau, in an attack attributed to Israel in northern Tehran. However, Mohammad Javad Zarif, the strategic deputy to the Iranian president, on Sunday, October 8, told reporters in Tehran that the Iranian leadership will decide on the response to Hassan Nasrallah's death. Zarif stated: 'Iran's reaction will take place at the appropriate time and at Iran's discretion,' and 'decisions will certainly be made at the leadership level, at the highest level of government.' Abbas Araghchi, the foreign minister in the government of Masoud Beigian, also threatened on October 8 that the killing of Abbas Nilforushan 'will not go unanswered.' The Israeli Prime Minister on October 1, in a speech at the United Nations, warned Iran that if it takes military action against Israel, Israel will respond on Iranian soil. Benjamin Netanyahu reiterated this warning upon his return to Israel on October 7. Despite all of the U.S. efforts to support Israel, a spokesperson for the National Security Council at the White House said on Sunday to CNN that the Biden administration still believes that 'a full-scale war with Hezbollah, with Iran, is not a way to reduce tensions.' John Kirby said if (Israel wants) its people to return to their homes, 'the right way' is diplomacy. Mr. Kirby's reference was to Israel's goal of intensifying attacks on Hezbollah to 'securely return' its evacuated residents from northern cities near the Lebanese border. Axios reported on Saturday, citing an American official, that the Biden administration's main priority right now is to persuade Israel to refrain from sending its army into Lebanon while simultaneously working to prevent Iran's direct involvement in this war so that civilians on both sides of the border can return home.