Birth Rate in Iran to Fall Below One Million in 1403

Iran's Minister of Health has stated that the country is on the brink of falling into a "demographic pit" and for the first time, the birth rate will drop below one million in the year 1403. This warning is one of the most serious issues raised by officials in recent years. Mohammad Reza Zafarghandi, Minister of Health, Treatment, and Medical Education, said in a public meeting on December 1st: "The fertility rate has now decreased from 2.01 in 1395 to 1.66, and if it reaches 1.1, we will be trapped in a demographic pit." He warned that "getting out of the demographic pit will be difficult and even impossible," emphasizing that superficial actions will not yield results and that changes must occur in the cultural, economic, and social spheres. The Minister of Health cited Japan and South Korea as examples of countries that have fallen from a demographic pit into a demographic hole and have struggled with this issue for decades without being able to escape it. Iran was once known as a country with the "youngest population in the world," but in recent decades, following economic difficulties, changes in citizens' lifestyles, and increasing political and social pressures from the government, the birth rate has been on a downward trend. Since the planning of society is based on population, and at one point, society and all facilities were shaped according to this large population, experts believe that a significant reduction in population will create a gap or pit that will be economically detrimental due to the underutilization of those facilities. The Minister of Health's warning comes at a time when Kazem Foroutan, the former Secretary of the National Population Headquarters, stated in 1401 that "we have even entered a demographic black hole in some provinces." The Minister of Health continued his remarks by calling for a reform of "social and cultural" approaches to this "national crisis." Zafarghandi, without detailing the social and cultural approaches that need to be reformed, added that solving the population issue in Iran requires "national determination with a scientific approach," and that superficial actions will not yield results. He stated that to escape the demographic pit, a "wave" is needed that must take place in the "cultural, economic, and social" spheres. His reference to superficial actions could indicate the imposition of restrictions on the sale of contraceptives and the prohibition of abortion, which have been implemented in recent years to prevent population decline. Following repeated recommendations from Ali Khamenei regarding the necessity of increasing childbirth in Iran, the government of Ebrahim Raisi issued the "Youth Population Law" in Aban 1400, which includes strict laws and directive policies to combat abortion and increase population. Seven months later, the Minister of Health announced the "Preservation and Care of Healthy Fetuses" guideline, focusing on criminalizing involvement in abortion and imposing "heavy" penalties. The issuance of this law faced widespread opposition from women's rights and human rights activists both inside and outside the country due to its strictness and coercive directives. The insistence of the Supreme Leader and other officials on increasing the population comes at a time when, according to their own admissions, the desire for childbirth among Iranian couples has significantly decreased due to economic and social pressures. Officials, without addressing the cultural and social reasons for this decrease in desire, alongside economic pressures and air pollution, are attempting to increase the birth rate in Iran through restrictive laws or temporary economic incentives. This decrease in desire, stemming from social and economic pressures, becomes significant as official statistics and government officials acknowledge that the desire to emigrate among various social classes and age groups in the country has sharply increased.