Bloomberg: International Atomic Inspectors to Report on Slowing High-Enriched Uranium Accumulation

Bloomberg reported that international atomic inspectors are expected to announce next month that Iran has slowed its accumulation of high-enriched uranium for nuclear weapon production. Bloomberg wrote that this report is anticipated to reduce tensions in the Persian Gulf, coinciding with ongoing negotiations for the release of American prisoners from Iran and increased oil exports to global markets. This comes as other reports indicate that the U.S. has deployed more forces to the Gulf in response to recent threats from the Islamic Republic against free shipping in the region. Part of Bloomberg's report states that inspectors from the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) are preparing to publish a quarterly report regarding Iran's cooperation to prevent the production and proliferation of nuclear weapons ahead of the IAEA Board of Governors meeting in Vienna scheduled for September 11. Ali Vaez, a researcher at the International Crisis Group in Washington, told Bloomberg about the upcoming IAEA report: 'As a diplomatic signal, this is the first real indication of Tehran slowing down (the accumulation of enriched uranium) after several years of continuous stockpile increases.' However, he added: 'As a technical matter, a reduction in 60% enrichment does little to alleviate concerns about the non-development of nuclear weapons.' High-enriched uranium is a key component in the production of nuclear bombs. Uranium needed to build a nuclear bomb must reach 90% enrichment. However, experts say that enriching from 60% to 90% is much easier. Iran began 60% enrichment in 2021 after its largest nuclear fuel production facility in Natanz was targeted in a sabotage attack that same year. While several countries, including the U.S., Britain, France, and Germany, have believed based on IAEA reports that the Islamic Republic's nuclear program has military applications, Tehran has claimed that its nuclear program is peaceful. According to Bloomberg, after months of secret diplomacy between Tehran and Washington, expectations have risen that Iran will reduce its uranium enrichment. The Islamic Republic stated earlier this month that informal contacts could eventually lead to the resumption of nuclear negotiations. The Islamic Republic has previously reduced its uranium production volume to show its willingness to negotiate. According to this report, U.S. officials have privately acknowledged that they have already reduced the enforcement of sanctions on oil sales. However, in Iranian state media, without mentioning this, the increase in oil sales has been presented as a capability of President Ebrahim Raisi's government. The reduction in sanctions enforcement has allowed the Islamic Republic to restore its oil production to the highest level since the start of oil restrictions five years ago. Iran has the fourth-largest oil reserves in the world, but its economy under the Islamic Republic is severely weak, and many people suffer from poverty. The largest share of Iran's oil sales over the past decade has been to China, with the Islamic Republic selling its sanctioned oil at significant discounts. Eli Grunbaum from the European Council on Foreign Relations told Bloomberg that Western countries have adopted a smaller-scale approach to reduce tensions instead of reviving efforts to sign 'a grand deal' that would resolve nuclear issues or complex regional security matters. He said to expect several rounds of tension reduction in the coming year before the U.S. presidential elections, perhaps every few months. Bloomberg noted that after reviewing the inspection report at the IAEA Board of Governors, informal contacts may continue on the sidelines of the agency's public conference scheduled for September 25 in Vienna, Austria. However, even with the reduction in enrichment, concerns about Iran's past nuclear activities and its current nuclear capacity remain. According to Eli Grunbaum, given that Iran's nuclear program is currently at its most advanced stage, any step by Iran to reduce its capabilities will be welcomed by the West.