Bloomberg: IRGC is Withdrawing from Combat Zones in Syria

While Ali Akbar Velayati, the senior advisor to the Supreme Leader of the Islamic Republic on international affairs, has stated that Tehran does not intend to 'abandon Bashar al-Assad on the battlefield and in politics,' Bloomberg reports what it calls a 'withdrawal' of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) forces from combat zones in Syria. Eli Lake, a columnist for Bloomberg, cites 'American and Western military officials' who have said that the Islamic Republic is in the process of 'removing' its military forces from battle areas in Syria. These unnamed American and European military officials told Lake that this action by Iran creates a rift in the bilateral coalition between Iran and Russia regarding the Syrian war. In his Thursday column (December 9), Lake wrote that 'American officials' have told him they have witnessed the exit of a 'significant' number of IRGC forces from operational areas in Syria. According to him, Iran made this decision after several of its senior military personnel were killed or wounded during operations to retake Idlib province in Syria from ISIS forces. In addition to the deaths of dozens of official IRGC members, Basij, and volunteer forces in Syria, key Iranian military figures such as Hossein Hamadani, commander of the 'Imam Hussein' headquarters, Farshad Hosseini Zadeh, former commander of the Saberin Brigade, Hamid Mokhtarband, former head of the 1st Brigade 'Hazrat Hojjat' in Ahvaz, Abdollah Eskandari, a commander of the IRGC Ground Forces, and Hadi Kajbaf, a senior commander of the IRGC 'Shushter,' have been among the highest-ranking Iranian military casualties in this country. This column comes amid unconfirmed reports from about two weeks ago regarding the injury of Qassem Soleimani, the commander of the IRGC Quds Force, in Syria. Although the IRGC denied this report, Soleimani has not attended any ceremonies since then, and even his scheduled speech at Shahid Beheshti University on December 7 was canceled. The IRGC later announced that Soleimani was not supposed to speak at that event. Eli Lake also wrote that U.S. intelligence officials are still investigating reports of Soleimani's injury in late November in Aleppo. While in October, the Wall Street Journal reported that 7,000 IRGC members and other volunteer military forces were fighting in favor of Bashar al-Assad in Syria, the current number of these forces has dropped to less than 700. This statistic was provided to Eli Lake by a Western military official, who added that these 700 do not include Iranian military advisors who have been training and cooperating with the Syrian army since 2012. After the IRGC's public relations confirmed the death of Hossein Hamadani in Syria on July 8, active Hezbollah forces on social media reported the 'complication' of the Syrian war and the beginning of operations titled 'Hard Revenge' in this country. The number of Iranian casualties after the start of this operation reached a level that the 'Defensive Sacred' news agency named this year's Muharram as the 'most Ashura-like Muharram of these years,' stating that the Islamic Republic has 'presented a victim to the court of Allah every day' during the first decade of it. Robert Ford, the former U.S. ambassador to Syria, also told Eli Lake that the prolonged Syrian war and the effort to keep Assad in power have put Iran under significant pressure and imposed many costs on the country. According to him, the Islamic Republic has effectively lost individuals who were fighting on the front lines in favor of Assad due to the deaths of its forces in Syria. As Bloomberg noted, the Obama administration views the issue of the withdrawal of Iranian forces from combat zones in Syria with optimism and hope to reduce human costs. If the content of this column is accurate, the Islamic Republic's decision to reduce the number of IRGC forces in Syria means it is losing a key ally in military operations within Syrian territory. Earlier, the Al-Monitor website quoted an unnamed Iranian source stating that it was the Islamic Republic that brought the Russians into Syria. Some American policymakers believe that Russia, like Iran, will not be able to sustain such intense military operations in Syria in the long term. Antony Blinken, the U.S. Deputy Secretary of State, stated after the start of Russian military operations in Syria that Moscow's entry into the Syrian war has also increased pressures on itself, and the Kremlin cannot continue this action in the long term. Meanwhile, Moshe Ya'alon, the Israeli Defense Minister, declared Russia's three-month plan to retake Idlib province and other areas of Syria as 'failed' due to the 'incompetence' of Syrian military forces and the lack of 'determination and will' among the IRGC forces present in the country.