Breakfast with Yellowcake in Vienna; Meeting of Iranian Representatives and the Trump Administration

The meeting on Tuesday of the Joint Commission overseeing the implementation of the JCPOA in Vienna, attended by Abbas Araghchi, Deputy Foreign Minister of the Islamic Republic, as head of the Iranian delegation, marked the first official confrontation between the political representatives of Tehran and the Trump administration. Given the contents of the U.S. State Department's report prior to the seventh meeting of the Joint Commission, confirming Iran's compliance with the JCPOA, the Vienna meeting, like the sixth meeting held on January 10 of this year, could have been entirely ceremonial without any significant news being released in its text or margins. However, three significant developments between the January 10 meeting and the April 25 session this year gave more importance to the recent meeting. First, Rex Tillerson, the U.S. Secretary of State, announced in a letter to Paul Ryan, the Speaker of the House of Representatives, that Iran has remained faithful to the terms of the nuclear agreement, while also expressing concern over Iran's support for 'terrorism.' Two other notable developments include the announcement of Iran's agreement with China regarding the redesign of the Arak reactor, which had its previous core removed under the JCPOA and needs redesigning, and Iran's decision to purchase 950 tons of yellowcake from Kazakhstan. Regarding the first point, the U.S. plays a decisive role as a member of the tripartite commission for the redesign of the replacement reactor in Arak alongside China and Iran, and without the positive opinion of the U.S., the reconstruction of the new Arak reactor core will not progress. In the second case, Britain's last-minute opposition to Iran's purchase of yellowcake halted a deal that, if completed, could significantly increase Iran's uranium reserves. The Iranian delegation held a bilateral meeting with the British delegation on the sidelines of the official meeting on Tuesday and then had a similar meeting with the U.S. delegation, which was the first official meeting between Iranian government representatives and the Trump administration. In the end, none of the bilateral discussions resulted in a statement indicating an agreement between the negotiating parties. The low level of representation of the American and British delegations may have been one reason for their lack of authority to announce any agreement or lack thereof. Between January and May of this year, the Joint Commission overseeing the implementation of the JCPOA witnessed a serious change in the U.S. government's perspective and behavior towards the agreement: the Obama administration was considered a staunch 'defender' of the JCPOA, while the Trump administration is seen as a staunch 'claimant' against it. Before being elected as President of the United States, Trump described the nuclear agreement as 'the worst deal ever' and called for its cancellation. After being elected and a relative reconsideration of this view, Rex Tillerson, Trump's Secretary of State, announced a comprehensive review of the nuclear agreement and the publication of a report on it, calling for a reconsideration without specifying which aspects of the agreement should be revised. In addition to the issue of imposing stricter oversight on the implementation of the JCPOA, the U.S., perhaps as a result of pressures from neighboring regional countries, may also seek to revise the remaining time for imposing restrictions on the nuclear activities of the Islamic Republic. The practically unlimited resumption of uranium enrichment in Iran after about eight years remaining under the JCPOA is a shared concern expressed by Saudi Arabia and Israel, two strategic allies of the U.S. Another point is the legalization of the implementation of the Additional Protocol in the Iranian parliament, instead of its voluntary implementation, which any government in Tehran could evade. Regardless of the results of the Iranian presidential elections at the end of this month, the Iranian government will undoubtedly not welcome any discussions aimed at revising the JCPOA. The Trump administration, although it is likely that after conducting internal studies and hearing the opinions of European countries, it may cease efforts to disrupt the JCPOA, will simultaneously refrain from offering the extensive concessions that the Obama administration had provided as rewards to the Tehran government. Looking at the composition of the Trump administration and their stated views, one can expect that the new U.S. government, while maintaining the framework of the JCPOA, will move in the opposite direction of the Obama administration regarding Iran and formulate its policies towards Tehran with the aim of weakening the Islamic Republic rather than strengthening it. The first bilateral meeting of the Islamic Republic's delegation in Vienna was with the British delegation, which had previously opposed Iran's request to purchase 950 tons of yellowcake from Kazakhstan. This amount of yellowcake, valued at approximately $80 million in the market, if processed in Isfahan and converted to uranium gas and enriched in Natanz at a concentration of 3.5%, and then turned into fuel, could supply the needs of the Bushehr nuclear reactor for at least four years. Russia is officially obligated to supply fuel for the Bushehr reactor for the next eight years. This same amount of yellowcake is sufficient raw material to produce about 50 conventional nuclear bombs if its concentration is increased to 90% or more. Mr. Araghchi revealed on the sidelines of the Vienna meeting, after a bilateral discussion with the British delegation, that he was questioned about Iran's actual need for this volume of processed natural uranium (yellowcake). Iran has stated that it intends to increase its uranium enrichment capacity to 100,000 SWU (Separative Work Units) or 100,000 centrifuges with the current enrichment power of each unit in Natanz after the lifting of JCPOA restrictions. Securing raw uranium to achieve this goal is a problem that cannot be solved solely by relying on domestic resources, as Iran's enrichment activities, which have so far produced over 12,000 kilograms of uranium gas at a concentration of 3.5%, have relied on yellowcake shipments purchased from South Africa before the revolution. The seventh meeting of the Joint Commission overseeing the implementation of the JCPOA, which was sensitive for the Islamic Republic as indicated by Araghchi's one-day consultations with Amano, the Director-General of the International Atomic Energy Agency, did not lead to the expected results for Tehran at the end of the first bilateral meeting and direct negotiations between the Iranian delegation and the U.S. representatives.