Can Saudi Arabia Mediate Between Tehran and Washington?

It has been about two years since the normalization of relations between Iran and Saudi Arabia, which was made possible through China's mediation. These two years have seen numerous developments in the Middle East, from the war in Gaza to direct confrontations between Iran and Israel. Today, especially with Donald Trump coming to power in the United States, not only is the political and strategic landscape in the region on the verge of change, but it seems that Riyadh is ready to play a more prominent role in this context. Saudi Arabia is set to host one of the most significant diplomatic developments in recent years: a meeting between the leaders of the United States and Russia. But can Saudi Arabia's role extend beyond this, and can the country play a key role in resolving the disputes between Tehran and Washington? We discussed the Tehran-Riyadh relations, the role of this country in the region, and the outlook for these diplomatic developments with Abdulaziz Sagar, one of the most important analytical figures in Saudi Arabia and director of the Gulf Research Center. Compared to a decade ago, it seems we are in a very different space regarding Iran-Saudi relations. We even see Iranian and Saudi officials taking selfies together on airplanes! How real and sustainable is this change, in your opinion? Saudi Arabia has always had a very firm stance towards Iran, meaning it always says that the political system and regime in Iran is the choice of the Iranian people. We have nothing to do with it; whatever choice the Iranian people want to make is theirs. Secondly, we want to see Iran stable and wish for the welfare of the Iranian people. It depends on the Iranian government how it manages this situation. Any escalation of tension in the region is not in favor of Iran, Saudi Arabia, or the other Gulf countries. The region could benefit from good relations with Iran. Saudi Arabia has refrained from allowing the use of its airspace or territory for any military attack against Iran and does not support any military attack against Iran. However, Saudi Arabia firmly states that if the Iranians want to continue their peaceful nuclear program, that is their decision. But they must adhere to the agreement they signed and ensure that there is no deviation from the use of this peaceful nuclear program and that it does not become military. Of course, there is also a tendency in Saudi Arabia that if Iran's nuclear program becomes military, Saudi Arabia will also go in that direction. Previously, the Crown Prince had said that if Iran decides to militarize its program, we must use our various options, and one of the options is to have a nuclear umbrella from a global power or to build our local program that could have dual-use or something similar. However, accepting military nuclear deterrence in the region is not good. We presented a very important major project in 2004-2005 for a Gulf region free of weapons of mass destruction, at that time inviting Iran to listen to it and participate. There was a willingness from Iran. Yes, Iran was interested, but then they changed. They said no, we do not want the Gulf; we want the Middle East. And in the Middle East, this means you have to involve Israel, and Israel will always claim that we are not a signatory to the NPT (Non-Proliferation Treaty) and the Additional Protocol. Iran and the other Gulf countries have signed the NPT, and some of them have also signed the Additional Protocol. The big puzzle today is that I think the only pressure that Israel and the U.S. are applying against Iran is nuclear, and the perception of the militarization of the nuclear program, and Iran does not send all the positive signals that it sometimes needs to send. They try to emphasize the level of enrichment they have reached, breaking the NPT agreement and the level below five percent they should adhere to. They say we produce 60 percent. Some reports indicate that at one point they reached close to ninety percent. Therefore, it is always the case that the signals coming from Iran do not guarantee the peaceful nature of this program to the Saudis. Is Saudi Arabia willing to play a role here to motivate Iran to move towards greater stability? For example, when it comes to economic relations, we do not see much happening in this regard. That is true, but the reason is the sanctions that exist against Iran, and the Americans are willing to impose secondary sanctions. We normalized relations in March 2023, diplomats have been exchanged between the two countries, and in Riyadh, for the first time, the Iranian Foreign Ministry's diplomatic institute visited the Saudi Foreign Ministry's diplomatic institute in Riyadh. We do everything we can. But when it comes to expanding trade relations and investment, the issue of sanctions is one we must face. And the U.S. will always have its secondary sanctions. And if imposed, it can harm everyone and yield no benefits. So what should we do? We need a change in attitude in Iran, ensuring that this program is for peaceful use and not for militarization while also addressing the challenge with the U.S. And how is the situation with the U.S.? We have several scenarios. Maintaining the status quo. Continuing to impose sanctions and pressure, something called 'maximum pressure.' Secondly, negotiations between Iran and the U.S., and that negotiation can take place to see where acceptable compromises lie. But one thing to remember: as long as Israel is behind the U.S. on this issue, it would like zero enrichment. So this is another issue that needs to be addressed. Do you think the Americans want the same? Well, the U.S. does not want war, but they want to apply maximum pressure. But if Netanyahu decides to take military action, he can and will garner U.S. support. Therefore, the third scenario would be a failure in negotiation or compromise, with Israel insisting on carrying out a targeted attack on a specific location or some other type of attack with full U.S. support. And frankly, this is very dangerous because if this happens, Iran's only option will be to retaliate against the attack. Whatever it can, as long as U.S. interests are targeted, Israel will be. Secondly, this may lead to internal unrest that could result in turmoil and instability, not only in Iran but in the region. So the issue is very delicate. I remember something that Israelis always say: we killed nuclear scientists; we are the ones who targeted centrifuges using cyberattacks. We are the ones who have the most important political lobby worldwide against Iran's nuclear program. And they are somewhat proud of having such a position regarding this nuclear program. Because in their strategic thinking, they want it to be only Israel that has nuclear deterrent capability. The other issue is the current U.S. administration. Mr. Trump wants to have an important meeting with his Russian counterpart during his first trip to Saudi Arabia. How do you see this? I hope so. And I think this shows that Saudi Arabia has always said that we must have independent and balanced policies. That is why we can host both. Because when the conference was held in Switzerland, the Russians were not there. Saudi Arabia did not sign the final statement, and all Arab countries except one did not sign the statement. Because we felt they should have a fair position so that the Russians could also be there and present their case, position, and stance. What about the Ukrainians? Their fate may also be determined without sitting at the table in Saudi Arabia. No, I think there is a lot of coordination with Ukraine. You see, this is a lever that can be used. Both sides have been very hurt. Many have died. The damage has been very high. I think they will consult with the Ukrainians; they will be aware of everything. Because ultimately, those two countries must sign an agreement together. The Americans can lift sanctions, but they cannot stop the war. They can do some economic issues and so on and allow Russia to return to the market, but they cannot, for example, end the occupation of territories. How do you see the impact of this important event in Saudi Arabia? Perhaps the most important meeting of the year is set to take place in that country. Can it strengthen Saudi Arabia's role as a mediator? In my opinion, the Saudis do not market themselves well and prefer to be humble in what they do and not talk about it. I think you mean, of course, in the diplomatic arena. In the diplomatic arena and also in the economic support they provide to many countries and their participation in many humanitarian issues. For example, regarding Ukraine, see what our position has been. We oppose Russia's military aggression. We voted against Russia's aggression at the United Nations. We issued a statement in the Gulf Cooperation Council led by Saudi Arabia on this issue. The Saudi Foreign Minister two years ago, in a 14-hour trip, went directly from Munich to Kyiv by train, and his message was that we insist on the unity of Ukraine. We always believe in a diplomatic solution to solve problems. These are alongside humanitarian aid and assistance in the release of some prisoners. But at the same time, we do not want to sever relations with Russia. Because this country is an important part of OPEC+. The fact that Saudi Arabia is not a NATO member has helped in hosting such a meeting? Because, for example, Turkey also had a similar approach and could have been a suitable place for such a meeting. Yes, first of all, Turkey is a NATO member and is heavily involved in the food issue between Ukraine and Russia and plays an important role there. Therefore, they should not be underestimated. But I think due to Saudi Arabia's position, its membership in the G20, the invitation to Saudi Arabia to join BRICS (which has not yet been finalized), and Russia's view of Saudi Arabia as a balanced Muslim country, made this country chosen as the host for such a meeting. Do you think the Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia can play a similar role regarding Iran? Honestly, I have two sincere pieces of advice for Iran. Now be careful with your statements and behaviors, as the time is very sensitive. We do not need a provocative statement that can annoy your enemy and justify that enmity. That is one. Secondly, focus on your friends who can help, and if Putin claims to have a good relationship with Trump and if Saudi Arabia also has a good relationship with Trump, use this leverage to help achieve an acceptable solution for this program. But make sure to choose the development for the Iranian people as your slogan, not the slogan of a regional superpower, equal deterrence, and such things. Such slogans will not work this time. You say 'friends.' Some may disagree with you because they say Russia essentially uses Iran for its own benefit and when the time comes, will sell Iran out. And regarding Saudi Arabia, the term 'competition' is used more than 'friendship.' Because the view is that if Saudi-Israeli relations normalize, the Saudis will not wait for Iran, and this is not a friendship. Saudi relations will never normalize with Israel unless the two-state solution or Palestinian state is involved. This has been emphasized many times. Therefore, there is no compromise on that. But the question is, what concern exists? I mean, the Beijing agreement between Tehran and Riyadh dealt with bilateral issues, but there was a lot of regional agenda that was never addressed, such as energy security, maritime security, interventionist policies, expansionist policies, sectarian issues, and so on. All these issues are an important regional topic that needs to be considered. Therefore, Iran cannot selectively act in choosing the part it wants without overlooking all the parameters that improve and enhance relations and move it towards cooperation. Abbas Araqchi (Iran's Foreign Minister) will be in Riyadh next week, perhaps tomorrow or the day after. And I think this is a signal that there is good cooperation and coordination between Saudi Arabia and Iran to reduce tensions in the region.