Can Widespread Protests Force Netanyahu to Accept a Ceasefire?

The announcement of the deaths of six young Israeli hostages held by the extremist group Hamas came just as the Israeli army was approaching their tunnels in Rafah, southern Gaza Strip, plunging the Israeli public into grief and leading to widespread protests and a failed attempt at a general strike. The recent conditions in Israel represent the heaviest internal pressure on Benjamin Netanyahu since the onset of the Gaza war nearly 11 months ago. On Sunday night, hundreds of thousands of Israelis gathered in cities for protests, and on Monday, coinciding with the funerals of the deceased hostages, protests continued, particularly in two major cities, Jerusalem and Tel Aviv. The Israeli labor union sought to establish a general strike on Monday in support of the families of hostages worried about their loved ones' fate in Hamas's hands, but the Israeli labor court deemed the strike contrary to strike laws. Some Israelis, including protesters in the streets and opposition leaders, hold the Prime Minister responsible for the increasing number of hostages who return not alive to their families but in 'black bags.' Of the 101 remaining hostages in Hamas's custody, approximately 33 are reportedly dead, and Hamas is holding their bodies for a potential deal, but Israelis hope that those still believed to be alive will return to their lives soon. Throughout the Gaza war, Netanyahu has faced heavy pressure from key partners in his government, senior security and military officials, and the United States, Israel's most important strategic ally, to achieve a ceasefire, but he has managed to reject all these pressures. The Associated Press has examined how the current protests in Israel may affect Netanyahu's next steps in the war. Netanyahu's opponents have accused him of focusing more on his political survival than on the fate of the hostages during the ongoing war. They emphasize that the survival of Netanyahu's coalition government depends on the continued partnership of two far-right parties led by Bezalel Smotrich, leader of the 'Religious Zionism' party, and Itamar Ben-Gvir, leader of the 'Jewish Power' movement; two extremist politicians who threaten from their powerful positions in the Ministry of Finance and National Security that they will topple his government if Netanyahu agrees to a ceasefire. The fall of the government would lead to early elections, and the opposition hopes that in the next elections, Netanyahu will not be able to return to power. In any case, Reuven Hazan, a political science professor at the Hebrew University of Jerusalem, told the Associated Press that the only important issue for Netanyahu is 'political survival.' The 74-year-old Prime Minister is also still embroiled in corruption and bribery charges in Israeli courts, which may face stricter scrutiny if he loses power. Despite the war, he has not abandoned his long-standing demand for changes in the Israeli judicial system, and his exit from power would mean the end of his influence on the processes to achieve the desired changes, including regarding the composition of Supreme Court judges. Netanyahu is also at odds with his defense minister, blaming Hamas for reaching an agreement. Netanyahu insists that no other politician in his country can secure Israel's maximum interests better than he can. He considers the continuation of 'military pressure' in Gaza to free the remaining hostages in Hamas's hands the best solution. On Monday night, he also explained in a press conference, showing many maps, why he would 'never' agree to Israel's withdrawal from the Philadelphi corridor in southern Gaza. Since Israel unilaterally withdrew from Gaza in 2005, and even months after the start of the Gaza war, the Israeli army has still refrained from entering the Philadelphi corridor, and now Netanyahu presents it as the most critical issue for Israel's security; a insistence that Hamas considers a violation of previous understandings in lengthy negotiations. President Biden has stated that Netanyahu is not taking sufficient actions for a hostage release agreement. Netanyahu is also in conflict with his defense minister, Yoav Galant, over the Philadelphi corridor. Galant, a general who has spent decades in military uniform, has publicly stated that insisting on Israel's presence on the Philadelphi road is unnecessary and that Israel can return to the area for operations whenever it wants. Galant has stated that the lives of hostages, who have little time left to live, take priority. Opposition media claim Netanyahu is trying to dismiss Galant, as he did at the beginning of the war, but some analysts in Israeli media say Netanyahu will keep a weak minister who cannot stand up to him any longer in his government. When asked in a press conference on Monday night whether he wanted to dismiss Galant, Netanyahu said, 'As long as there is an understanding and a minister agrees to implement decisions made by a majority vote of the cabinet, there is no need to dismiss anyone.' Following the increase in Palestinian civilian casualties in Gaza and the destruction of a large part of the infrastructure in the strip, Israel has increasingly become isolated globally. The threat of prosecution of Israeli leaders by the International Criminal Court in The Hague remains a concern. Many of Israel's allies and Western countries have voiced increasing criticism of the country during the war. Joe Biden, despite the strategic alliance with Israel, has shown since the war began that he does not agree with Netanyahu's management of the war, and his criticisms, along with those of other American officials, have become increasingly evident. However, the 'no' that Joe Biden expressed on Monday, especially due to its timing amid widespread protests and anger over the deaths of hostages, received particular attention. Reuters reported Biden, who had just disembarked from a helicopter and entered the White House, was asked whether Netanyahu had made sufficient efforts to reach an agreement. Mr. Biden firmly and loudly said 'no.' Biden had issued a statement earlier, expressing condolences to the families of the victims and the people of Israel over the grief caused by the deaths of six hostages, one of whom, Hersh Goldberg-Pollin, was a 24-year-old American. Families of hostages who also hold American citizenship have repeatedly stated that while the Israeli Prime Minister has not met with them sufficiently during these 11 months of war, they have had many more meetings with Biden. Some Israelis and a group of families of the 101 remaining hostages in Hamas's custody accuse Netanyahu of obstructing an agreement. They say Netanyahu's approach has endangered the lives of the hostages. The Haaretz newspaper, which opposes Netanyahu, wrote in its main article on Sunday regarding the deaths of six hostages at the hands of Hamas: 'Hamas pulled the trigger, but Netanyahu was the one who condemned them to execution.' The people of Israel, weary from the pressures of 11 months of war and concerns about Iranian attacks or the outbreak of a regional war, had recently tried to return to normal life as much as possible, but the grief over the announcement of the deaths of their six young hostages brought them back to the streets to protest. From early Sunday, shortly after the announcement of the deaths of six hostages, hundreds of thousands, especially in Tel Aviv, took to the streets, beating drums and chanting: 'Agreement, now.' The protests on Sunday were the largest demonstration and show of unity from public opinion since the war began. About a year before Hamas's attack on Israel that led to the war, the streets of Tel Aviv and other cities in Israel witnessed widespread protests against potential changes in the judicial system, which they termed Netanyahu and his allies' 'judicial coup.' However, the war had united the two divided factions of the Israeli public, and those protesting men rushed to the war fronts earlier than others. The limited impact of public pressure became evident after the Histadrut, the Israeli labor union, announced a general strike on Monday in support of the families of hostages, and municipalities in liberal cities like Tel Aviv joined the strike, causing disruptions in work and life. Less than six and a half hours after the strike, the 'High Labor Court' of Israel ruled that the strike was contrary to the principles that labor unions have the right to strike and ordered its end. The large demonstrations in Israel these days have not managed to shift the recognized political boundaries, as it appears that the protesters in the streets are the same liberal and secular class that participated in protests against Netanyahu a year before the war. Families of the deceased hostages have expressed hope that the ongoing protests will be a turning point for progress in reaching an agreement and ending the war. John, the father of Hersh Goldberg-Pollin, the young Israeli-American hostage who was killed, said on Monday at his son's funeral attended by tens of thousands of people in Jerusalem, political officials from the United States, and the President of Israel, that the only solace for him and his grieving family is that perhaps this death will spark efforts to reach an agreement that will bring the remaining hostages back to their loved ones. In contrast, Netanyahu and his supporters argue that yielding in negotiations, especially after the deaths of six hostages, would amount to rewarding Hamas and could embolden the extremist group to kill more hostages and escalate violence. Reuven Hazan, a political science professor at the Hebrew University of Jerusalem, believes that as long as the political stability of Netanyahu's government continues, the Prime Minister will pursue his approach to negotiations and will completely ignore the protests. According to him, only if the protests continue, involving other segments of society beyond secular and liberal groups, might the tide turn and Netanyahu's position change. Netanyahu's roughly one-hour press conference held suddenly on Monday night indicated his continued insistence on adhering to his views regarding the war. Contrary to what is presented in the international community about the widespread internal opposition against Benjamin Netanyahu, he still relies on the support of a majority of Israeli public opinion. A poll by Israel's Kan network, released on Monday night simultaneously with Netanyahu's statements, showed that 49% of Jewish Israelis oppose an agreement for the release of hostages at the cost of withdrawing the Israeli army from the Philadelphi corridor, while 43% support it. A poll from the previous weekend by Kan also indicated that a majority of public opinion still considers Benjamin Netanyahu more 'worthy of leadership' than all opposition leaders, and the only hope of his opponents is that in the event of repeated elections, the coalition of parties supporting Netanyahu does not reach the necessary majority of parliamentary seats to form a government, in which case the political deadlock in Israel's political scene would be repeated as in the not-so-distant past.