Canada and the Inclusion of the IRGC in the List of Terrorist Organizations

The Canadian Parliament has passed a resolution to include the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) of Iran in the list of terrorist organizations. It seems that with the imminent approval of the leftist Canadian government, this resolution will be formalized and the entire Canadian ruling body will support it. However, this event is a lengthy process according to Canada's legal structure. It must first be discussed and reviewed in the cabinet by ministers, which may also involve changes. Thus, if this resolution is finalized and implemented, Canada will be the first country in the world to officially and legally designate the IRGC as a terrorist organization. This decision is not just about adding a name to the list of terrorist organizations; it will have significant implications for politics in Iran, the world, and the Middle East. Before Canada, the U.S. government considered similar actions at two points: first during Obama’s presidency and then during Trump’s. However, in both cases, the White House set it aside after assessments by security agencies and the U.S. Department of Defense, redirecting its punitive policies towards the Quds Force, the IRGC's regional tool. The difference in the positions of Canada and the U.S. in this regard requires attention. Canada does not have a military presence near Iran's borders and therefore cannot be directly targeted by the retaliatory activities of the IRGC, especially the Quds Force. Although it is part of the anti-Daesh coalition, it does not have extensive cooperation with U.S. military operations. The threat from IRGC Commander Aziz Jafari, who warned that if the IRGC were placed on the U.S. terrorist list, the U.S. would have to move its military bases a certain distance from Iran's borders, was not without impact on U.S. decision-making. However, Canada does not have this situation, and the Islamic Republic does not see a significant threat from this country across the Atlantic. Nevertheless, it is not indifferent to it, and the Foreign Ministry's position condemning the Canadian Parliament's action, which closes the window for improving relations between Iran and Canada during Justin Trudeau's premiership, is rooted in Tehran's officials' dissatisfaction. The inclusion of the IRGC in a government's terrorist list would make IRGC commanders and officials, and even past officials, legitimate targets for security and judicial actions in the target country. Their assets would also be confiscated, and security and military cooperation with the IRGC would be prohibited. Given the intertwined military and defense system of Iran with the IRGC, the scope of the Canadian government's decisions would effectively impact all of Iran's military forces. This action could also encourage other countries to include the IRGC in their terrorist lists, as there is considerable sensitivity and opposition regionally and globally towards the IRGC. However, the lack of universally agreed criteria for defining terrorism and the double standards applied by global powers could serve as a buffer for the IRGC, allowing them to accuse the Canadian government of political and biased actions, thereby neutralizing its effects. If Canada ultimately officially designates the IRGC as a terrorist organization and consequently returns its relations with the Islamic Republic to previous tensions, the Trump administration may also reactivate a similar plan that it had halted. In this case, Canada would effectively exert heavy pressure on the Islamic Republic by paving the way for the U.S. However, the biggest obstacle for the U.S. in this action is its impact on the potential for military confrontation between Iran and the U.S. in areas like Syria, where both Iran and the U.S. have military presence. In this case, fighting terrorism in Syria would include confronting the IRGC. Of course, the presence of Hezbollah in Syria and the U.S. not confronting it while considering this group a terrorist organization reminds us that merely having a group on the U.S.'s terrorist list does not authorize military action against it. Yet, even assuming this perspective and extending it to the regulation of relations with the IRGC while it is on the U.S. terrorist list, one cannot deny the increased risk of military confrontations. Especially since the governments of Israel and Saudi Arabia would increase their efforts to reduce the IRGC's influence in the Middle East and use this lever as a pressure tool. However, if the Canadian government's efforts do not go beyond a symbolic level, and as some unconfirmed reports suggest, the main reason for the Canadian government's dissatisfaction is the restrictions imposed on Canadian citizens residing in Tehran, particularly the prevention of Dr. Kavous Seyed Emami, an environmental activist who suspiciously died in Evin prison, from leaving, then the scope of the mentioned plan would be limited and would not have a significant impact on global relations with the IRGC. Overall, it seems that the Islamic Republic will respond seriously to the issue of placing the IRGC on the list of terrorist organizations for strategic and political reasons. The costs of placing the IRGC on the terrorist list are also heavy in terms of credibility and prestige, and both main factions of the government will not easily accept it.