Central Bank Prepares for a 'Difficult Year'; Economic Activists Report Currency Rationing

A number of economic activists have expressed concern about the upcoming conditions and stated that there is no hope for the year 1403 (2024) as the Central Bank has begun currency rationing. A member of the board of directors of the Chamber of Commerce mentioned to the Donya-e-Eqtesad newspaper that currency is being rationed among ministries involved in imports, including the Ministry of Industry, Mine and Trade, Agriculture, and Health and Medical Education. Keyvan Kashafi also noted that these ministries have imposed very strict and time-consuming regulations for the allocation of currency. Donya-e-Eqtesad also quoted economic activists and members of the Chamber of Commerce stating that next year will be a difficult year for the private sector and the public, describing it as one of the hardest years. Concerns raised for the year 1403 include budget imbalance, tax collection, currency shortages, the possibility of Trump's return to the White House, escalating regional tensions, the composition of the new parliament, and the final year of the government's term. Kashafi also stated that the base currency price for imports will definitely change next year. Many experts believe this will lead to a general increase in commodity prices, affecting the public's livelihood in the first quarter. Abbas Argon, a member of the Tehran Chamber of Commerce's board, also mentioned the likelihood of Trump's return to the White House and believes that no actions are being taken internationally to lift sanctions and improve the country's international conditions, and that conditions will become even tougher with Trump's return to the presidency. The lack of a clear outlook on political and economic issues for the coming year has increased the likelihood of protests and a return of people to the streets. In this context, Donya-e-Eqtesad referred to the street protests of 1996, 1998, and 1401, emphasizing that today Iran is facing a politicization of the streets. The newspaper stressed that while the protests are rooted in economic issues, they have also become a venue for expressing political demands over the years. Mohammad Gouchani, a member of the central council of the Kargozaran Sazandegi Party, also warned about the conditions for the coming year, emphasizing that political organizations are unable to do much to prevent the politicization of the streets in Iran. Disruption at airports followed the announcement of an increase in travel currency quotas, and discussions about the completion of a barter deal of 'tea for oil' were noted, with Sri Lanka stating it has settled its $250 million debt to Iran with tea. An increase of 500 euros in travel currency was announced, which the Hajj and Pilgrimage Organization stated would include 'pilgrims to holy sites.' The market regulation for the New Year and Ramadan is in a coma, with inflation rising. The rial is on the path to destruction, and a newspaper reported a record outflow of capital. The 'Inspection Organization' has entered the issue of 'travel currency,' with reports that the Central Bank has demanded the names of buyers. The ongoing controversies surrounding the Central Bank's currency policy continue, with travel currency payments being halted by a directive from Raisi.