Challenges Ahead in the Turkish Elections

Turkey is currently engaged in parliamentary elections, which is considered the most important issue for both domestic and foreign political circles. The elections on June 7 will be one of the most critical elections in Turkey's history. This is why the political processes and developments of the parties involved in this election, whether right or left, or the ruling party and opposition parties, are of great importance not only for political science experts but for everyone, especially foreign countries and particularly those in the Middle East. Although some European countries and the United States do not explicitly express their views on this matter, one can infer their perspectives from the statements or interviews of political officials. The direct presidential election held on August 10, 2014, has fundamentally changed Turkey's parliamentary governance system. With the rise of Recep Tayyip Erdoğan to the presidency, the Justice and Development Party (AKP) has made the path they defined eight years ago for changes in Turkey's political structure smoother. The ruling party aims to solidify the governance system based on their beliefs by making amendments to Turkey's constitution. Initially, the ruling party attempted to achieve this through inter-party negotiations and proposals in the constitutional commission in parliament, but strong opposition in parliament became an obstacle to this goal. Therefore, the elections on June 7 are politically and socially significant. If the ruling party can secure the highest number of representatives in parliament and, according to Erdoğan's statements, achieve at least 400 representatives, they will be able to present the constitutional amendment to the representatives without needing a public referendum. Otherwise, a complicated path lies ahead for Turkey's political horizon. It is evident that there are two major problems with a public referendum. Firstly, a parliamentary resolution is required to conduct a referendum, which, given the power of opposition parties, will be difficult to pass. Secondly, the heterogeneity of Turkey's social structure and political awareness poses a significant challenge. The Turkish president believes that the current Turkey has a system that is formally similar to the Anglo-Saxon system and content-wise resembles French democracy. Therefore, the division of political power in the country leads to interference in power, which reduces the positive trend of political developments and does not consider the direct involvement of the people in these changes. What is important in this issue is the reason behind the constitutional amendment. The Turkish president believes that the current Turkey has a system that is formally similar to the Anglo-Saxon system and content-wise resembles French democracy. Therefore, the division of political power in the country leads to interference in power, which reduces the positive trend of political developments and does not consider the direct involvement of the people in these changes. He argues that in such a situation, an oligarchy is created among the statesmen, and the government system, under this interference, is forced to respect dual political rights in adherence to two separate structures. In clearer terms, democracy and republicanism encroach upon each other's domains, and bureaucratic oligarchy supports republicanism while the people support democracy. He believes that 'transforming the governance system and transitioning to a presidential system is a condition for maintaining stability in Turkey.' Erdoğan previously stated that everything must align with democracy, considering the people's preference in the presidential elections in August 2014. Therefore, in Turkey, terms like republic, democracy, and secularism are used by specific groups as armor to protect political and economic power. Thus, we are compelled to change this system. Erdoğan's political transformation goal and that of his party members aim to shift the current system towards establishing a presidential system. However, this has led to tensions and political developments in the opposition front, motivating opposition parties to collaborate more against the ruling party's demands. As the election date approaches, contradictory and challenging interpretations of the trajectory of Turkey's political developments can be observed. This situation is merely aimed at knocking out Erdoğan's party, and in terms of power, none of them have a reincarnation or proportionate relationship with each other. The political transformation targeted by Erdoğan and his party members aims to change the current system towards establishing a presidential system. However, this has led to tensions and political developments in the opposition front. According to surveys conducted in Turkey, it seems that the distribution of votes in the upcoming elections will be unexpectedly divided. The ruling party, the Justice and Development Party, despite securing over 50% of the votes in the previous elections, is predicted to obtain around 44% this time. Other opposition parties, including the Republican People's Party and the Nationalist Movement Party, are expected to secure 24% and 13% of the votes, respectively. However, what will disrupt the balance of the elections is the Democratic People's Party's ability to surpass the 10% threshold of total votes. If this happens, which is highly likely, the ruling party's forward momentum in changing Turkey's governance system will face numerous challenges, and significant political events will occur in Turkey. In such a case, either a coalition of parties for government power will be proposed, which, given Erdoğan's actions towards opposition parties, seems unlikely to approve the presidency, or the minority ruling government will take control of the state. It appears that the Justice and Development Party is preparing itself for the next marathon, understanding this situation. Erdoğan's speeches in Kurdish regions, appealing to people's religious sentiments, overlooking some of the people's debts, and engaging public opinion with electoral promises—though all parties have adopted similar behaviors—are all aimed at securing an absolute majority of votes. However, if such a result is not achieved and a minority government comes to power in Turkey, the path to approving the presidential system within Turkey's political structure will face significant challenges. Therefore, it is predicted that Ahmet Davutoğlu's government will extend a coalition hand towards the Democratic People's Party. In this case, and with the aim of utilizing the Democratic People's Party's potential in parliament, the path for understanding and interaction between the Justice and Development Party and this party, with the foundational structure of Turkey's Kurds, will provoke significant reactions from both the Republican People's Party and the Nationalist Movement Party. On the other hand, the Democratic People's Party, considering the political coordination and similarity to solve the Kurdish issue in Turkey, will lead to a successful deal with the ruling government. However, the question remains whether the relatively nationalist society will be able to accept such a transformation. In such a case, it seems that Turkey is on the verge of significant political transformations, which the ideological structure and interests of the country's socio-political framework may not withstand. Therefore, it is expected that Turkey's future during these elections will undergo many special transformations that will not only affect Turkey itself but also neighboring countries. What should be noted in today's political outlook of Turkey is that fundamental freedoms, the sovereignty of democracy, creating obstacles to the dominance of ideological and individual viewpoints, and establishing appropriate grounds for the governance of balancing mechanisms in the political structure and governance system are essential; rather than parties focusing solely on their victory horizon during the electoral opportunity and taking political risks that could undermine many social, economic, and political foundations to achieve power and eliminate rivals. Therefore, we must wait to see whether Turkey will move towards democracy with these elections or whether parties will merely prepare the ground for another early election in their quest for power, effectively stalling the train of democracy in a narrow alley.