China and the Complexities of Expanding the Shanghai Cooperation Organization to the Middle East

The Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), as a security bloc in Central Asia led by China and Russia, has the potential to become a counterweight to NATO and American influence in the East in the not-too-distant future. Some international observers believe that the main reason for the formation of this organization is to counter possible American intervention in China and Russia or to prevent military conflict in the region. This intergovernmental organization, established in 2001 with the aim of multilateral security, economic, and cultural cooperation, currently has eight main members and four observer states. Its main members include Russia, China, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, India, and Pakistan. India and Pakistan are the latest members of the SCO, with their membership approved at the recent summit of the organization held on June 8-9 in Astana, the capital of Kazakhstan. According to the Washington Post, the organization's plans indicate its evolution, and it is predicted that Iran will soon join this organization, with Turkey's membership also not being out of the question in the future. Therefore, if the expansion of the SCO leans towards the Middle East, it would not be surprising for some Arab countries in the region to seek to join this organization as well. The chaotic stance of the Trump administration regarding the Qatar crisis and the Gulf Cooperation Council countries, especially Saudi Arabia, and the general perception among Arab leaders that China and the Far East are at the center of America's strategy, while the Middle East has lost its former priority in the strategic landscape of the U.S., could drive Arab leaders towards the SCO and lead them to seek other foreign powers for their security. Iran's membership, with the positive views of China and Russia, has been a topic of interest. Iran was accepted as an observer to the SCO nearly twelve years ago in 2005 and requested permanent membership in 2008. This request did not progress due to UN sanctions against Iran related to its nuclear program. However, following the JCPOA and the reduction of significant sanctions, the environment for this has become more favorable, and the barriers to Iran's accession to this organization are being removed one by one. Russia also has a positive stance towards Iran's official accession to the SCO following the nuclear agreement. In this context, Vladimir Putin stated at the summit that there is no obstacle to accepting Iran's membership. According to the Washington Post, Li Huilai, China's Assistant Foreign Minister, emphasized Iran's active participation in the SCO and its contributions to the organization's development, stating, 'China welcomes Iran's official membership in the SCO.' Last year, the Chinese president expressed his support for Iran's membership during an official visit to Tehran. Given the positive views of Russia and China, which play a major role in the expansion and shaping of the SCO, it is expected that Iran will soon become a permanent member of this organization. Turkey's interest, apart from Iran, in joining the SCO will also push the expansion of this organization towards the Middle East. Turkish officials, especially President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, have frequently spoken about the shared values between Turkey and SCO members. Last month, the Chinese ambassador in Ankara stated that China is ready to accept Turkey's membership. Russia also shares a similar view, and importantly, Turkey's accession to an Eurasian bloc aligns with Russia's economic and security interests. While Turkey is eager to join the SCO, its accession to the European Union, at best, requires a ten-year period with a very optimistic outlook and is not feasible until 2018, partly due to Ankara's interference in the country's democratic process and partly due to the Justice and Development Party's delays in the reforms desired by Europe. In this regard, Sigmar Gabriel, the German Foreign Minister, stated in an interview with Spiegel last year, 'Turkey is far from meeting the EU's membership criteria... and if it does not reach the EU's standards, it should not expect to join this union.' The New Silk Road, Strategic and Commercial Importance The accession of Turkey and Iran to the SCO, apart from expanding this organization and moving it towards the Middle East, also has strategic dimensions. One of these is China's 'New Silk Road' initiative, which aims to create a new Silk Road across Eurasia. This initiative and its implementation hold a special place in Xi Jinping's foreign policy. Iran is considered a significant country along the New Silk Road and is located on one side of the 'China-Central Asia-West Asia Economic Corridor.' In February 2016, the first transit train of this corridor arrived at Tehran railway station after traveling 10,399 kilometers in 14 days. According to Iranian media, this train carried 32 containers of commercial goods from the Yiwu railway station in Zhejiang province in eastern China and entered Iran for the first time via Turkmenistan and Kazakhstan. Transporting these goods by sea would not have been possible in less than 45 days. The Islamic Republic has extensive trade relations with China, and according to the Washington Post, the value of goods exchanged between the two countries increased from $8.5 billion in 2005 to $31.6 billion in 2016. Turkey also holds a special position along the 'New Silk Road' and is located at the western end of the mentioned corridor. Turkey's suitable infrastructure can also help strengthen regional transportation lines. Recently, Turkey completed a high-speed railway project across the country in collaboration with China, receiving a $750 million loan from Beijing – a railway that could facilitate Chinese companies' involvement in other infrastructure projects. Turkey's trade relations with China are also notable, with the value of goods exchanged between the two countries increasing from $7.5 billion in 2006 to $27 billion in 2016. Iran-Saudi Arabia Rivalry, Complexities The accession of Iran and Turkey to the SCO, considering China's extensive trade relations with the Gulf Cooperation Council countries, could create complications for Beijing. China sources over 30% of its imported oil from Saudi Arabia, Oman, and the UAE, and one of the largest gas sources in the Gulf region is Qatar. In the Middle East, Saudi Arabia and the UAE are China's largest trading partners, with the value of trade between China and these two Arab countries reaching $114 billion in 2016. Additionally, China is expected to sign an important trade agreement with the Gulf Cooperation Council countries this year. The Gulf Cooperation Council countries hold a significant position in China's foreign policy, and thus closer relations with the Islamic Republic and Turkey will bring about complexities. Therefore, in the tense and crisis-ridden situation of the Gulf region, China seeks to avoid taking sides by creating a balance in its relations with Tehran and Riyadh and emphasizes resolving issues peacefully and diplomatically to establish stability in the region. In fact, this approach aligns with Beijing's foreign policy, which broadly includes maintaining cautious and calculated relations, especially in economic terms, with major powers; establishing close and neutral relations with oil and gas-producing countries, especially in the Middle East; and fostering close relations with neighboring countries based on mutual interests. Nonetheless, in March of this year, during King Salman's visit to China, Beijing proposed that the Saudi king play a mediating role between Tehran and Riyadh to reduce tensions in the Gulf region. However, given Iran's presence in the SCO and China's positive view towards Iran's membership, Beijing's mediation proposal was not accepted. A Multipolar System in the Gulf Region? The presence of two powers, China and Russia, in the SCO has made the activities of this organization significant in terms of security, and other countries are also seeking to utilize this capacity to create stability internally and enhance their security. Economically, China, through significant investments in the New Silk Road project, which encompasses economic benefits for all countries in the region, contributes to regional convergence and stability. Nevertheless, as the Washington Post has noted, Iran and Turkey's membership in the SCO and the proxy rivalry and war between the Islamic Republic and Saudi Arabia could pose challenges for China's Middle Eastern policy and diplomacy. At the same time, achieving this could open new horizons for the SCO and its expansion. The accession of Pakistan and India to the SCO has shown that this organization has the capacity to accept rival countries. Therefore, while Iran is set to join this organization, it would not be surprising if Saudi Arabia and other members of the Gulf Cooperation Council also seek to join the SCO. The rivalry between Iran and Saudi Arabia and the unclear policies of the U.S. in the Middle East have turned the Gulf region into a field for the entry and role of other foreign powers like China, which have clear policies and economic interests in the region. It is expected that the Arab countries of the Gulf Cooperation Council will establish closer relations with China and other extra-regional powers, inevitably leading to the creation of a multipolar system in the region, a system that has not been seen in this region since the end of the Cold War.