China's Exploitation of the Diplomatic Rift Between Europe and the U.S. Over Ukraine

After a week of relentless diplomacy regarding how to end the war in Ukraine, which has deepened the rifts between the United States and other Western powers and raised new questions about the future of U.S. aid to Ukraine, China is exploring ways to take advantage of this situation. The diplomatic disagreements between the United States and its European allies, the latest of which arose following a verbal spat in the White House between U.S. President Donald Trump and his Ukrainian counterpart Volodymyr Zelensky, provide new opportunities for Beijing to mend its damaged relations with Europe. This situation could also spill over to Asia, where Washington-aligned countries like Taiwan must grapple with the consequences of a transactional United States that could create opportunities for China as it seeks to increase pressure and assert more influence in the Pacific. Andrew Small, a senior researcher at the Marshall Fund in Germany and a former advisor to the European Commission on China strategy, told Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty: 'This has certainly been favorable for China. Beijing is monitoring the additional opportunities that this situation could present, from Taiwan-related positions to increased international cooperation with Russia and a weaker United States.' Trump has 'suspended' U.S. military aid to Ukraine; how can China benefit from policy changes in the United States? Even before the recent crisis in Washington, which forced Zelensky to leave the White House prematurely without signing an important mineral contract, China had been engaging with Brussels and European capitals. Three EU officials told Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty that China is seeking to exploit concerns arising from U.S. actions to reassess relations with Russia and end the war in Ukraine quickly, potentially isolating European countries from their ally. Despite declaring neutrality in the Ukraine war, Beijing has supported Russia in its military invasion of Ukraine and is now looking to expand its proposals and exploit the Atlantic divide. Among these divides is Trump's plan to impose a 25% tariff on goods made in the European Union, which Brussels has announced it will respond to with countermeasures against the U.S. economy. Small states that this Chinese effort is still in the 'fact-finding' early stages, and Beijing wants to 'see what kind of opportunities will arise in this new context.' According to Small, 'Whatever China proposes will be met with skepticism, but Beijing believes that if it navigates these early stages well, opportunities will arise, especially if tariffs are imposed.' China has so far preferred to remain on the sidelines of multiple diplomatic activities since Trump's rise, but at the same time, Chinese officials have been examining the European side. Wang Yi, China's foreign minister, stated in February at the Munich Security Conference that he believes all stakeholders should participate in peace negotiations and highlighted Europe's role before U.S.-Russia talks in Riyadh that did not include Ukrainian and European officials. Shu-Jia Anna Frenz, an assistant professor at National Dong Hwa University in Taiwan and a former advisor to the European Parliament, told Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty: 'If I were China, I would tell the Europeans something they want to hear, which is that Europe and Kyiv must be at the table to discuss Ukraine.' Beijing must also overcome the perception that its diplomatic efforts are more about publicity than genuine mediation. Shortly after the war began, Chinese leader Xi Jinping rushed to portray China as a neutral country, and Chinese diplomats called for peace in international organizations. In 2023, Beijing released a 12-point peace plan for Ukraine that seemed designed to set the stage for a ceasefire and peace negotiations but did not provide a clear roadmap for ending the war, and Western officials viewed it as setting the stage for peace on Russia's terms. In a similar event, EU officials say Beijing has yet to present any new proposals to the bloc beyond remarks about the unreliability of the United States and normalizing trade relations. The Trump administration has stated that its efforts are aimed at forcing allies to pay a larger share of their defense needs, resetting trade relations, and ending the war in Ukraine. U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth has also stated that if the United States reduces military aid to Ukraine, it will allow Washington to focus its resources on the Asia-Pacific region, where countering China is a priority according to the U.S. government. However, there are early signs that Washington's attitude toward ending the war in Ukraine may have implications in the Far East, particularly in Taiwan, the self-governing island that Beijing is determined to annex if it refuses to accept peaceful reunification with China. Taiwan has long faced the prospect of a Chinese attack, but pressures appear to be increasing. The Chinese Ministry of Defense did not rule out the use of force against Taiwan on February 28, and spokesperson Tan Wu Qian warned the United States that 'covert maneuvers regarding Taiwan will backfire on them.' These remarks came after Taiwanese officials reported that a cargo ship with crew members from China was seized on suspicion of cutting an underwater communication cable. Subsequently, the Chinese military conducted what Taipei declared were unannounced shooting drills off the southern coast of the island. Taiwan's ability to repel a potential attack depends on whether the United States is prepared to assist, and the Taiwanese government views U.S. aid to Ukraine as a kind of indicator of Washington's response in the event of a crisis with China. Ryan Hass, a former director for China at the U.S. National Security Council, stated that Trump's efforts to end the war in Ukraine and his recent spat with Zelensky at the White House will undoubtedly heighten anxiety in Taipei. However, he added that Taiwan's unique position as a producer of 90% of the world's most advanced semiconductors puts it in a special situation with the United States. Trump has called for increased defense spending in Taipei and has said he wants some of the semiconductor manufacturing plants on the island, which primarily produce chips for U.S. tech companies, to be relocated to America. However, any relocation would be a costly and lengthy process.