CNBC Analytical Report on Tensions Between Iran and Taliban Over Water; Likely to Escalate

On Sunday, June 18, CNBC reported on the escalating tensions between Iran and the Taliban over control of water, a vital resource that is rapidly diminishing. The report referenced a border clash on May 27 that resulted in the deaths of two Iranian soldiers and one Afghan soldier, with several others injured. It presented statements from both sides, where the Islamic Republic claims that the Taliban is deliberately depriving Iran of its water rights, while the Taliban cites reduced rainfall and river levels, stating that there is not enough water available. The Taliban's water policy flowing from Afghanistan to Iran has increased the risk of further instability in Iran's Sistan and Baluchestan province, which has recently witnessed widespread protests against the Islamic Republic. In the summer of 2021, protests over water shortages and frequent power outages in Khuzestan quickly spread to several cities in Iran, including Tehran, leading to a severe government crackdown known as the 'Uprising of the Thirsty.' CNBC quoted an expert from the Maplecroft risk consultancy, who noted that given the severe U.S. sanctions against the Islamic Republic and the ongoing anti-government protests, a water security crisis in eastern Iran could complicate the situation further. Tensions over water between Iran and Afghanistan have a history of two hundred years. In the 1950s, Afghanistan constructed two major dams, which significantly reduced the flow of the Helmand River into Iran, angering Iran. Ultimately, both sides signed an agreement in 1973, allocating 850 million cubic meters of Helmand water to Iran annually. However, political unrest, revolutions, and wars in both countries have hindered the implementation of this agreement. Scientists have long warned of the increasing risk of war and humanitarian crises over natural resources due to climate change. CNBC cited a Middle East and North Africa expert stating that it is difficult to resolve disputes between Iran and Afghanistan over their water rights from the Helmand River, as both countries suffer from water scarcity due to climate change. The Taliban, in a statement in mid-May prior to the recent clash, expressed support for the 1973 agreement but deemed Iran's repeated requests for its water rights under this agreement as 'harmful' due to drought, severe rainfall reduction, and water shortages. In response to this statement, Ebrahim Raisi warned Taliban officials to 'immediately provide the rights of the people of Sistan and Baluchestan.' Following this, a Taliban commander warned Iranian officials, 'Do not attack us. We are afraid.' The Islamic Republic, in response to this Taliban commander's warning, issued a statement emphasizing that it does not recognize the Taliban government in Afghanistan. The verbal conflict between the Islamic Republic and the Taliban has exacerbated tensions, and many are concerned that the deadly clash on May 27 may be a sign of deepening this crisis in the coming months and years. Raisi's special envoy stated that the Taliban agreed to allow Iran to measure the water level of the Helmand. The Iranian Foreign Minister Amir Abdollahian described the border clash as 'unintentional.' The Iranian Interior Minister referred to the border tensions with the Taliban as a 'minor clash.' Social media users criticized the Islamic Republic's performance, with Ahmad Massoud stating, 'Did I not tell you not to go there?' Three were killed in the border clash between Iran and the Taliban, and local officials began dialogue. The border conflict between the Taliban and the Islamic Republic coincided with the escalation of water tensions. The Taliban opposed the Islamic Republic's request, stating they might not allow visits to Afghanistan's dams. The water dispute continues, with Amir Abdollahian asserting that the Islamic Republic does not recognize the Taliban. The tensions over the Helmand persist, with military officials from the Taliban and Iran meeting in Kabul. The Taliban responded to Ebrahim Raisi, saying, 'Express your demands in suitable terms.'