CNN: Intelligence Estimates Indicate Likelihood of Iranian Proxy Attacks on U.S. Interests

CNN reported on Friday, October 6, citing officials at the Pentagon, that recent intelligence assessments indicate that Iranian-backed proxy groups are likely considering attacks against U.S. military personnel or interests in the Middle East. The CNN reporter at the Pentagon, quoting three unnamed U.S. Department of Defense officials, wrote that these proxy groups are located in Syria and several other Middle Eastern countries, and according to this report, due to the transfer of weapons from Iran to Syria, these groups have increased access to ballistic missiles and other advanced weaponry. U.S. and Iranian officials have not yet responded to this report. According to CNN, Pentagon officials did not specify what signs indicate new threats from Iran, but Iranian officials named the U.S. as one of the factors behind the Ahvaz attack. The attack on a military parade in Ahvaz left at least 24 dead, and after contradictory statements, Iranian officials ultimately announced that five attackers had been killed. Iranian officials made varying statements regarding the identification of the perpetrators of this attack, initially attributing it to a group known as the 'Arab Struggle Movement for the Liberation of Ahvaz' and later to ISIS. Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the leader of the Islamic Republic, stated two days after the Ahvaz attack that it was 'the work of those individuals who are rescued by the Americans wherever they get caught in Syria and Iraq, and their hands are in the pockets of Saudi Arabia and the UAE.' The leader of the Islamic Republic also threatened that 'we will certainly give a severe reprimand to the perpetrators of this action.' Hours after the Ahvaz attack, the U.S. State Department expressed condolences to the people of Iran and condemned the attack. Nikki Haley, the U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations, also the day after the attack, in response to accusations of U.S. involvement in the Ahvaz attack, urged Iranian leaders to take a closer look at their actions to understand the reasons for this event. Saudi Arabia and the UAE have also rejected Iran's accusations. In recent days, several U.S. officials have issued strong warnings about potential Iranian threats against U.S. interests. John Bolton, the White House National Security Advisor, warned Iranian officials at a conference of a group known as 'Alliance Against a Nuclear Iran': 'If you take any steps against us and our allies and harm our citizens [...] you will certainly face very bad consequences.' Last week, Mike Pompeo, the U.S. Secretary of State, warned that any attack by Iran or its proxy groups against the U.S. would lead Washington to take direct action against Iran. CNN's new report cites Pentagon officials stating that intelligence assessments indicate Iran is publicly focused on negotiations to maintain the JCPOA with Europe and thus prefers not to use Iranian forces directly in attacks against U.S. targets, delegating this task to proxy groups. In recent days, conservatives in Iran have adopted a harsh tone against the U.S., Saudi Arabia, and the UAE, and the Fars news agency, close to the IRGC, also released a video on Tuesday showing an animation of an Iranian missile attack on Israel and Saudi Arabia. This video was shortly replaced by another one without mentioning city names.