Comprehensive Efforts by the European Union to Preserve Iran's Nuclear Agreement

Europe has one week; one week to keep the United States in the nuclear agreement it has worked for years to maintain, while also convincing Iran to come to the negotiating table regarding its other concerns and those of the United States, such as its ballistic missile program and regional behavior. However, the efforts of the European continent in this regard have been criticized by the Iranian Foreign Minister. Mohammad Javad Zarif, Iran's Foreign Minister, says that the Europeans are 'negotiating with others at Iran's expense.' Zarif's comments refer to the intensive discussions among the three European countries, Britain, France, and Germany, with Washington. These discussions have been held multiple times and have even involved leaders such as Emmanuel Macron and Angela Merkel. While Zarif has criticized these European efforts, his deputy, Hossein Jaberi Ansari, met in Rome with his counterparts from Britain, Germany, France, and Italy, led by Helga Schmid, the political deputy to the EU's foreign policy chief. This meeting, which took place behind closed doors, was said by the EU to focus on political and humanitarian issues related to Yemen. On Friday in Brussels, Maja Kocijancic, spokesperson for the EU's foreign policy chief, responded to the question of whether the meeting in Rome was a signal to Washington about Europe's dialogue with Iran regarding regional issues, stating, 'There is no doubt that we are in dialogue with Iran. We believe that the goal of the JCPOA is being realized and our efforts in this regard continue, while this is separate from all considerations and our work on regional mechanisms. This is an area where we are very active, and this meeting is an example of many discussions we are having.' Another concern for Donald Trump, the President of the United States, and his European allies is Iran's ballistic missile program, which Washington claims threatens its security and that of its allies in the region. Iran, on the other hand, states that this is part of the Islamic Republic's defensive program and that it will not negotiate on it. Tehran has been sanctioned multiple times due to the continuation of this program and the testing of these missiles. The three European countries negotiating with the U.S. were trying to impose sanctions on Iran in this area before the May 22 deadline, but they were unsuccessful. According to sources in the EU on Friday, it is 'almost impossible' for this sanction to be approved by all EU members before May 22, as Italy, whose new government has not yet taken office, opposes its approval. These informed European sources say that the likelihood of this issue being raised in the Union's meeting next week is also low, as previous efforts in this regard have not yielded results. Additionally, as reported by Reuters on Thursday, there is a disagreement between the United States and Europeans regarding Washington's requests for negotiations on increased inspections, particularly of Iran's military facilities, as Europeans believe 'the JCPOA covers this issue sufficiently.' In such a situation, one week before the May 22 deadline, many analysts assess the likely scenario as the non-signature of the sanctions suspension certification by the U.S. President. This scenario does not necessarily mean the U.S. will withdraw from the JCPOA, but as Richard Nephew, a U.S. negotiator on sanctions during the nuclear talks, states: 'If the President does not sign this certification, all U.S. sanctions pressure theoretically returns.' Nephew adds that even if sanctions do not return suddenly, this could mark the beginning of economic pressure on Iran and states, 'There may be an opportunity for European negotiations, but this is a small window unless the President simultaneously announces that sanctions enforcers should not act quickly to try to reduce oil purchases from Iran.' He points out that 'this is the main problem. The sanctions that need to be suspended on May 22 relate to oil purchases from Iran, and companies buying oil from Iran must make quick decisions about how much oil they will buy from Iran in the next 180 days. Most of these companies are trying to take fewer risks. Therefore, unless a very strong message is sent that this is not the end of the road, I think these companies will not wait to see the results of U.S. actions. And as soon as these companies decide to reduce oil purchases from Iran, economic pressure on Iran and political pressure on Rouhani will increase.' For this reason, senior Iranian officials say that even if the U.S. does not withdraw from the JCPOA, if Tehran does not benefit from the JCPOA, it may also exit this nuclear agreement. These threats have even extended to the possibility of withdrawing from the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons, with Iran's representative to the International Atomic Energy Agency, Reza Najafi, warning in an official statement during the NPT conference in Geneva on this matter. Europeans are preparing for a possible failure of their efforts while seeking ways to maintain their political and economic relations with Tehran. Two other powers that played a role in the nuclear negotiations with Iran, Russia and China, have emphasized the necessity of continuing the implementation of the JCPOA, but at least in the public sphere, there have been no reports of their active diplomatic efforts to continue implementing this agreement.