Concerns of Lebanese Analysts About Lebanon's Future; Can the Army Contain Hezbollah?

Analysts view the reappointment of Joseph Aoun, the commander of the Lebanese army, as a stabilizing factor whose role in maintaining relative calm in Lebanon during border conflicts with Israel could be crucial. According to a report published by the English section of Voice of America on December 28, it is unclear whether he can keep Lebanon away from conflict with Israel and prevent the increasing presence of Hamas in the country. The Lebanese Parliament voted on December 15 to extend Joseph Aoun's term as commander of the Lebanese army. Observers say this move prevented a crisis in determining the military leadership's role in the country. Lebanon still lacks a president, and ministries are run by interim heads, as sectarian political factions have failed to reach an agreement on a presidential candidate since Michel Aoun's term ended last year. Clashes involving Hezbollah, the Shiite militia supported by the Islamic Republic, have escalated along the border with Israel, which is described as even more powerful than the Lebanese army. It is reported that Hezbollah, which is well-trained, possesses about 150,000 missiles. On Wednesday, December 27, the border between the two countries witnessed heavy exchanges of fire following the killing of a Hezbollah member and two others, allegedly by Israel. Benny Gantz, a member of Israel's war cabinet, issued a serious warning to Hezbollah, stating, 'If the world and the Lebanese government do not take action to prevent attacks on northern Israeli residents and to distance Hezbollah from the border, the Israeli army will do so.' Dania Kouliilat Khatib, a Lebanese analyst, told Voice of America that in her view, Israel wants to see whether tensions with Lebanon will escalate. Khatib, the head of the Center for Cooperation and Peacebuilding Research in Beirut, also told Voice of America that Joseph Aoun is in a difficult position. She said, 'Can the army prevent war? It cannot. But the international community trusts that it is better than having no one in command of the army.' She continued, 'The army has already managed to limit Palestinian factions that want to attack Israel. The army wants to create some sort of buffer.' Voice of America also reported that Maha Yahya, head of the Carnegie Middle East Center in Beirut, mentioned concerns about the potential entry of Hamas members into Lebanon after the war and the military activities of Palestinians in Lebanon during an online seminar. She said, 'This will have a significant impact on the political scene in Lebanon. Recently, we have seen more calls to recruit Palestinian youth on Lebanese soil. This has raised considerable concern among a wide range of Lebanese.'