Confidential Report: The Likelihood of a Nuclear Agreement with Iran by April is 'Very Weak'

The Israeli newspaper Haaretz published a 'confidential' report from the Ministry of Foreign Affairs on Sunday, February 15, stating that the likelihood of Iran and world powers reaching a nuclear agreement by the end of March, early April, is considered 'very weak.' Haaretz reported that this assessment was provided by the intelligence forces of the Israeli Ministry of Foreign Affairs in a 'classified document' given to Avigdor Lieberman, the Foreign Minister and the Israeli government, and sent to several Israeli diplomatic missions. According to Haaretz, the intelligence forces became more confident in their assessment after analyzing the speech of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei last week. In his speech on February 8, the Supreme Leader of the Islamic Republic stated that Iran would not accept a 'bad deal' and that a two-phase agreement was also not to his liking. Haaretz noted that this assessment from the Israeli Foreign Ministry's intelligence forces contradicts statements made by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu regarding the powers' agreement with Iran. In recent days, Netanyahu has repeatedly stated that Iran and world powers are on the verge of reaching the outlines of a 'bad deal' (from Israel's perspective) by the end of March. Netanyahu mentioned that the most significant progress in the nuclear negotiations occurred during meetings between Mohammad Javad Zarif, Iran's Foreign Minister, and his American counterpart, John Kerry, and that the Israeli government is aware of this. While Haaretz has revealed the Israeli Foreign Ministry's intelligence report regarding the 'very weak' likelihood of reaching an agreement between Iran and the powers, some Western analysts, referencing Khamenei's February 8 speech, speak of an increased chance of reaching a final agreement. Iran and the P5+1 countries have until the end of March to outline the main points of an agreement and, in the three months following, until the end of June, to reach an understanding on the details of the agreement. On the other hand, Yuval Steinitz, the Israeli Minister of Intelligence and Strategic Affairs, returning from discussions with European officials regarding Iran's nuclear program, stated that any agreement being formulated with Iran must monitor Iran's nuclear program for decades. Steinitz told his country's media that if this agreement only aims to monitor Iran's nuclear program for ten years, Israel would consider it 'bad.' This Israeli minister added that eight specific requests regarding Iran's nuclear program had been made, but Tehran had only agreed to one request, which is to limit its enriched uranium stockpile. Meanwhile, Ayatollah Khamenei, in his recent speech, claimed that Iran has taken four practical steps towards an agreement: halting the production of centrifuges, stopping the production of 20% uranium, and ceasing activities at the Fordow and Arak sites. According to Israeli media, Steinitz has claimed that the West is 'surrendering' to Iran. The Israeli Minister of Intelligence and Strategic Affairs also stated in recent days that for his country, the 'military option' against Iran's nuclear program remains on the table—even if Israel has to execute it alone. Two weeks ago, Iran's Foreign Minister emphasized at the Munich Security Conference that his country's nuclear program poses no 'threat' to anyone and added that Israel cannot justify its 'crimes' against Palestinians under the pretext of Iran's nuclear program.