Consequences of a Possible Israeli Attack on Iran's Nuclear or Oil Facilities

Israeli officials have stated that they will not leave the missile attack by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps on Israel on October 1 unanswered. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu reiterated that Israel will retaliate against anyone who attacks the country. Mr. Netanyahu said at the beginning of a political-security meeting, 'Iran made a big mistake tonight' and added, 'The Iranian regime does not understand our determination and will to defend ourselves and retaliate against our enemies.' If Israel responds, which locations in Iran might be considered potential targets? The Wall Street Journal reported on October 2 that Israel's response to the IRGC missile attacks is not expected to be limited, unlike a similar previous attack that occurred a few months ago. In response to the first missile attack by the IRGC on Israeli territory, Israel targeted an S-300 missile defense system near Isfahan. Norman Roule, a former senior U.S. intelligence officer on Iran, told the Wall Street Journal, 'Israel is trying to establish the idea that its technological and military superiority allows it to strike any target in Iran.' The Wall Street Journal cited some analysts suggesting that this time Iran's nuclear facilities or its oil infrastructure could be targeted, but such attacks significantly increase risks. Farzin Nadimi, a senior security researcher at the Washington Institute, also told Radio Farda that the Islamic Republic's oil facilities, located in southern Iran, are more accessible, and fires resulting from these potential attacks would receive more media coverage. He stated that attacking Iran's nuclear facilities, located deep underground in central Iran, would require a broader military effort from Israel. If Israel were to conduct a military attack on Iran's nuclear facilities, it would not be the first time Israel has targeted a foreign country's nuclear facilities. In 1981, Israel, despite U.S. opposition, targeted a nuclear reactor in Saddam Hussein's Iraq. Additionally, Israel claimed in 2018 that it had conducted a highly classified airstrike on a nuclear reactor in eastern Syria 11 years prior to prevent Syria from developing nuclear weapons. According to the Israeli army, on September 5, 2007, Israeli F-16 and F-15 aircraft attacked a reactor located in the Deir ez-Zor region of eastern Syria, causing irreparable damage. Furthermore, Israel has been accused by the Islamic Republic of not only killing some individuals involved in Iran's nuclear program but also conducting sabotage attacks against Iran's nuclear facilities. However, if an Israeli attack occurs on Iran's nuclear facilities located deep underground in central Iran, what would happen to Iran's nuclear program? Kelsey Davenport, director of nuclear nonproliferation policy at the Arms Control Association based in the U.S., wrote on social media platform X: 'Iran currently has nuclear weapons capability. Its knowledge cannot be bombed. Attacks may roll back Iran's nuclear program, but Iran can rebuild. And based on what has happened in the past, it will rebuild and harden its capabilities against future attacks and expand them.' She added, 'More concerning is that attacks will likely lead Tehran to conclude it needs nuclear weapons to prevent future attacks. This possibility has always existed, but it is now more likely.' This nuclear analyst emphasized that 'Iranian officials have openly threatened that if there is an attack on the country's nuclear facilities, they will review the country's nuclear doctrine. These statements put more pressure on the government to move towards nuclear weapons in the event of an attack.' While Iran's oil facilities are also a potential target for Israel's response, oil prices rose on the evening of Tuesday following the IRGC's missile attacks on Israel, even before any response from Israel. Kelly Siegel, an energy analyst, wrote for Reuters: 'Israel will not hesitate to expand its military attack to strike directly at Iran, and Iran's oil assets are likely on the target list. An Israeli attack on Iran's oil production or export facilities could disrupt oil production, likely exceeding one million barrels per day.' Overall, the dimensions of the consequences of an attack on Iran's oil facilities are not precisely defined, as per assessments by some experts and the threats from Islamic Republic officials, disruptions in oil production or exports around Iran may expand.