Consequences of Global Warming and the Outlook for the Paris Conference

The 21st UN Climate Change Conference began on Monday morning in Paris, attended by Ban Ki-moon, the UN Secretary-General, and dozens of leaders from various countries around the world. Representatives from 195 UN member countries are participating in the two-week Paris conference. This conference is held two decades after the signing of the Kyoto Protocol aimed at controlling greenhouse gases, and participants hope to reach a long-term and sustainable agreement. Professor Martin Beniston, head of the Institute of Environmental Sciences at the University of Geneva, expressed hope in an interview with Radio Farda that the representatives at the Paris conference could agree to limit global warming to two degrees Celsius. Martin Beniston stated that the idea presented at the Paris Climate Change Conference is to strive to limit global warming to less than two degrees Celsius. However, based on the plans that participating countries have committed to, there seems to be a consensus around three degrees Celsius. Global warming has accelerated since the late 19th century, with an increase of about one degree over the past 150 years, which may seem small, but it is occurring ten to a hundred times faster than the natural rate of climate change. If we compare the transition from the Ice Age over the last 20,000 years to the current warm conditions, we see that a warming of 4-5 degrees took about ten thousand years, but today the Earth's temperature has increased by one degree in just a few decades. Predictions suggest that if no action is taken to halt this trend, temperatures could rise by another four degrees, not over ten thousand years, but likely within a hundred years. Therefore, the rate of change is indeed very rapid. If global warming continues at the level of 3-4 degrees, what consequences should we expect? As temperatures rise, the impacts will become stronger. The most significant consequence is likely to be the rising sea levels, which could change the lives of millions of people worldwide. Major commercial centers like Shanghai, New York, and Rotterdam could be lost. Other impacts of global warming can also be seen in water resources, with significant changes expected in some regions of the world, including Europe. We may witness more droughts in southern Europe and flooding in the north, necessitating a reevaluation and redesign of water resource usage in the future. Therefore, what social consequences should we expect from global warming in the next 50 or 100 years? If we consider the significant impacts of this phenomenon, such as rising sea levels, small islands and areas of the Earth will be submerged. This phenomenon will become one of the driving forces behind what we refer to as environmental migrants—people who must leave their homes due to the loss of livable conditions. Water shortages in a region can also drive people to migrate to other areas. Are you hopeful that this conference will lead to practical actions beneficial for future generations? I believe we are in a better position compared to the 2009 Copenhagen Conference. Most countries have accepted that this is a problem that needs to be addressed. We may not reach a particularly remarkable agreement or treaty, but we will achieve significant results that will pave the way for a complete agreement by 2020. What happens in the next two weeks in Paris is a positive sign for the full implementation of the agreement in the next 4-5 years.