Consequences of Riyadh's Break with Tehran

Riyadh's decision to immediately expel staff from the Islamic Republic's embassy, in response to the burning of the Saudi embassy in Tehran and the attack on its consulate in Mashhad, not only darkens Tehran's relations with several Arab countries but could also thwart recent multilateral efforts aimed at achieving some form of reconciliation in ongoing regional conflicts. Iran and Saudi Arabia have previously decided to sever ties twice, with each political break lasting four years. The first severance occurred in 1941 in protest of the beheading of an Iranian in Mecca. The second occurred in 1987 following the deaths of several Iranian pilgrims during the Hajj, during which the Islamic Republic organized a protest ceremony titled 'Disavowal of Polytheists.' This is the first time Saudi Arabia has taken the lead in expelling Iran's diplomatic staff. The cold political relations between Tehran and Riyadh have taken on a challenging form since the ascension of the current King Salman. After the execution of Sheikh Nimr, the leader of the Islamic Republic predicted that Saudi leaders would soon face 'divine retribution.' President Hassan Rouhani condemned both the execution of Sheikh Nimr and the attack on the Saudi embassy in Tehran. Protests against embassies in Tehran have taken various forms under different names and justifications since the beginning of the revolution. The first and longest example was the 444-day hostage crisis of 52 diplomats and embassy staff from the United States in Tehran, which disrupted Iran's foreign relations with the West for years. Following the attack by a group known as 'protesters' on the British embassy in Tehran in 2011, the Islamic Republic's relations with London have recently and gradually been moving towards normalization. The recent attack by a group known as 'protesters' on the Saudi embassy in Tehran will undoubtedly complicate Rouhani's government's efforts to normalize the Islamic Republic's foreign relations, especially after the lifting of sanctions. Despite the appointment of Jaafar, the former Saudi ambassador to Russia, as the new Saudi ambassador three months ago, Saudi Arabia has been without an ambassador in Tehran for the past 20 months, and its embassy in Iran has been managed by a chargé d'affaires. The Islamic Republic and Saudi Arabia are engaged in an overt Shia-Sunni rivalry in the region and have indirectly confronted each other in Iraq, Syria, Bahrain, Lebanon, and Yemen. In the latest development in the Yemeni civil war, Riyadh abandoned a fragile ceasefire announced weeks ago following missile fire from Houthi rebels into Saudi territory. Peace negotiations for Syria are set to resume in Vienna on January 16 with the participation of Iran and Saudi Arabia. With the deterioration of relations between Tehran and Riyadh, it is expected that not only will the war in Yemen intensify, but the chances of success for the Syrian peace conference will also significantly diminish. Ignoring the simplest diplomatic protocols and ensuring the security of guest political staff and their locations in Iran under the pretext of political protest against the internal actions of foreign governments can severely impact Tehran's efforts to align itself with conventional systems.