Continued Decrease in Inflation Rate; Statistical Center: 13.6%, Central Bank: 14.8%

The Statistical Center of Iran and the Central Bank have recently published their reports on inflation index changes for October 2015, indicating a continued trend of decreasing inflation rates. According to the Statistical Center of Iran's report on the changes in the consumer price index for urban households in October this year, the average inflation rate for the year ending in October 2015 compared to the same period last year has reached 13.3%, which shows a decrease of 0.3 percentage points compared to the average inflation rate in September this year. The Statistical Center of Iran reported that the average inflation rate for the twelve months ending in September 2015 was assessed at 13.6%. However, in the Central Bank's report on the consumer price index for October this year, the average inflation rate for the reported month reached 14.8%, which is a decrease of 0.3 percentage points compared to the average inflation rate of September 2015. The twelve-month inflation rate ending in September 2015 was reported by the Central Bank as 15.1%. Based on the results of these two reports, both the Statistical Center of Iran and the Central Bank agree on the trend of decreasing inflation rates. Both statistical authorities emphasized the decrease in point-to-point inflation for this month in their reports. According to the Statistical Center of Iran, the point-to-point inflation rate for October 2015 reached 10.9%, experiencing a decrease of 0.7 percentage points compared to the point-to-point inflation rate of September. The point-to-point inflation rate for September 2015 was reported as 11.6% by the Statistical Center. The Central Bank of Iran also announced the point-to-point inflation rate for October as 10.8%, which compares the inflation rate of the reported month with the same month last year. The point-to-point inflation rate for September this year was reported as 11.7%. The decrease in monthly inflation was confirmed in the first month of autumn this year by both the Statistical Center of Iran and the Central Bank. The monthly inflation rate for October according to the Statistical Center of Iran was 0.8%, down from 0.9% in September, indicating a decrease of 0.1 percentage points in monthly inflation. The monthly inflation rate for October in the Central Bank's report was announced as 0.6%, remaining unchanged compared to the monthly inflation rate of September 2015. According to the Central Bank's report, the trend of decreasing inflation rates that has continued in recent months has persisted in October of this year. On the other hand, the approaching point-to-point inflation rate nearing single digits has raised hopes that the trend of decreasing inflation rates will continue in the coming months. The promise of continued reduction in inflation rates is a commitment emphasized by the President and the Minister of Economy. In contrast, some economic experts and analysts, pointing to the government's expansionary policies emphasized in the new anti-recession policy package, believe that the implementation of these policies could halt the decreasing trend of inflation rates and even lead to a resurgence of inflation. Since taking office in mid-2013, the eleventh government has managed to reduce the inflation rate from above 40% to below 15%. The government attributes the reduction in inflation rates to financial and monetary discipline, controlling the growth of the monetary base, and its policies, while critics believe that part of the reduction in inflation is due to the widespread recession in the Iranian economy.