Contradictions in Polls, Four Days Before the Fourteenth Presidential Election

Four days before the fourteenth presidential election in Iran, the campaigns of candidates approved by the Guardian Council continue, and in this context, centers affiliated with government institutions and conservatives have published polls that contradict each other. The Tasnim News Agency, close to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, and the Telegram channel 'Quds Force' published the results of a poll conducted on the second and third of Tir (June 22-23) by the 'Growth Center of Imam Sadiq University', claiming that voter turnout in the presidential election will be 51.7%. Meanwhile, another poll from the 'ISPA' center, affiliated with the Academic Jihad, shows that 'the definitive participation rate has reached 43.9%'. This center states: 'According to the results of this wave, there has not been a significant change in the people's participation rate in the elections compared to the previous wave (June 19-20), as the definitive participation rate increased from 42.5% in the previous wave to 43.9% in the current poll.' The concern over the 'lack of increase' in participation rates following the presidential election campaigns has arisen from these two polls, which have caused worry among some conservatives, particularly due to the rise in votes for Masoud Pezeshkian, the reformist candidate, which has been reported at 24.4%, placing him currently at the top of the table. Hossein Shariatmadari, editor-in-chief and representative of the Supreme Leader in Kayhan newspaper, called for an alliance among conservative candidates against Masoud Pezeshkian, stating, 'If you do not form an alliance, you are not followers of the martyr Raisi.' Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf, Saeed Jalili, Alireza Zakani, and Amir Hossein Ghazizadeh Hashemi present themselves in the election debates as continuers of the governance style of Ibrahim Raisi, the former president, who died in a helicopter crash with his entourage on May 30. In his note, Shariatmadari referred to Masoud Pezeshkian, stating, 'Some leaders and associates of the sedition and a number of individuals with a bad reputation have come to support a candidate and have demanded that 'if you want the presence and continuation of the discourse of martyr Raisi, which is another interpretation of the discourse of the Imam, the revolution, and leadership, you must agree to an alliance.' The newspaper 'Khorasan', close to conservatives, also wrote that 'in the polls of the past 72 hours, Pezeshkian has shown significant growth, and there is no option but consensus for conservatives.' Other conservative newspapers, Javan and Vatan-e-Emruz, have also called for the numerous candidates of this faction in the elections to withdraw and form an alliance around one candidate. It seems that the general inclination of these media and conservative figures is towards Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf, who is ranked second in their affiliated polls. In the Imam Sadiq University poll, Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf received 23.4% of the votes and Saeed Jalili 21.5%, placing them second and third after Pezeshkian. The remaining three conservative candidates, Amir Hossein Ghazizadeh Hashemi, Mostafa Pourmohammadi, and Alireza Zakani, collectively hold only 10% of the votes. The Javan newspaper, close to the IRGC, wrote in this regard: 'If Jalili withdraws in favor of Qalibaf, there is a possibility that most of his votes will go to Qalibaf, allowing him to surpass the required 50% of the votes and finish the job in the first round.' The newspaper added: 'However, if Qalibaf withdraws in favor of Jalili, it is likely that a significant portion of his votes will not go to Jalili and will be divided into two parts, either going to Pezeshkian or to invalid votes.' Meanwhile, the ISPA poll indicates that Saeed Jalili is ranked second after Masoud Pezeshkian, with a 2% decrease to 24%. Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf has also allocated 14.7% of the votes in this poll, which shows a decrease of more than four percent compared to the previous wave. However, what has caused controversy regarding the ISPA poll, affiliated with the Academic Jihad, is the presence of Hassan Farsi, the deputy of this institution, in a debate on the Islamic Republic's Channel Three in favor of Saeed Jalili. Some experts have deemed the polls of this center 'suspicious' for this reason. Abbas Abdi, a political activist, stated in this regard that 'I previously defended ISPA polls more than anyone, but in the new government, I no longer have much trust in ISPA.'