Could the Iranian Satellite Launch Vehicle Target the U.S.?

As Iran prepared to launch its new satellites into space, the United States criticized the program, viewing it as part of Iran's ballistic missile development. However, Tehran insists that the program is civilian in nature and on Tuesday launched one of these domestically produced satellites. This action, despite the hopes of the Iranian Minister of Communications, was unsuccessful. According to Iranian officials, the launch of the Payam satellite was successful in the first and second stages, but in the final stage, a specific velocity needed to place the satellite into orbit was not achieved. Iran's attempts to launch this satellite have drawn attention from experts in the field, including Jeffrey Lewis, a researcher at the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies in Monterey. In recent days, we observed the preparations for the satellite launch through satellite imagery. Our assessment of the dimensions of this program was that around January 4, we saw images of large containers moving towards the location where the satellite launch vehicle was undergoing final preparations. We also observed significant vehicle movement in these images. We captured these images almost daily through Planet Labs, a San Francisco imaging company. However, on some days, the images were obscured due to cloud cover. Regardless, we were eagerly awaiting the satellite launch. Iranian officials stated that they were unsuccessful in the final stage of this operation. However, for instance, the Israeli Prime Minister claims they are lying and believes that this action by Iran was aimed at developing intercontinental missiles. How can we verify the accuracy of these claims? Politics is always disruptive. It is somewhat true that satellite launch vehicles share similar technology. However, in my opinion, this was a satellite launch and not an intercontinental ballistic missile test. The rocket that the Iranians tested did not have enough power to be classified as an intercontinental missile capable of reaching the United States. More importantly, the rocket that the Iranians used for the satellite launch had technology similar to that used in North Korea. What we saw in North Korea was that when Kim Jong-un wanted to build an intercontinental missile, he used a different rocket with a different engine and fuel. Therefore, I believe the Iranian claims are correct. However, at the same time, we have no way to confirm the intentions of countries in their actions, right? I think in this case, intent is not relevant. The question is whether this rocket could target the U.S.? No, it could not. The second question is whether this rocket used technology that could be converted into a threatening intercontinental missile? Again, the answer is no. I think if Iran wants to build an intercontinental missile, it will use a different engine and fuel. Another issue that gained attention after this rocket launch was the manner in which the news of the failure was announced, and that the Iranian Minister of Communications addressed it very openly and promptly. Given the current political climate surrounding this action, and the U.S. reading it as a threat, did Iran have any option other than to speak transparently in this regard? Look, for example, North Korea usually exaggerated in this regard. But the reality is that the satellite did not enter orbit. Since the atmosphere is transparent and the U.S. and other governments have monitoring devices for satellites, and even amateur observers use telescopes and can see the atmosphere, they would realize that no satellite has entered orbit. Therefore, if the Iranians were lying, there would be no way to escape from that. Now that this satellite launch has not been successful, what do you think the efforts of Iranian engineers will focus on? I have seen initial reports of the malfunction. However, engineers need to determine exactly what caused the problem. It seems that an issue arose in the final stages, which is part of the rocket but not a major part. The space domain is a challenging field, and launching satellites is always difficult. Even when the United States placed spy satellites into orbit, some of them were lost, and everyone has faced failures in this area over the years. Therefore, I think Iranian engineers will likely address these issues, and we will soon witness another satellite launch from them.