Crisis Management in Iran's Capital: Estimates of Potential Earthquake Casualties in Tehran are 'Confidential'

A government official in Iran announced on Saturday, October 21, that estimates regarding potential casualties from an earthquake in Tehran are confidential, stating that 'in the event of an earthquake in Tehran, people will have to fend for themselves for up to three days.' Ali Nasiri, head of the Tehran Disaster Prevention and Management Organization, told Khabar Online, 'There are estimates of potential casualties, but they are confidential.' This statement comes at a time when Pyruz Hanachi, the former mayor of Iran's capital, had previously stated on July 3 of this year that 'if an earthquake above 7 on the Richter scale occurs under the worst conditions, meaning when people are asleep in their homes, it is predicted that 400,000 people will die in this earthquake.' Ali Nasiri mentioned that the Ministry of Education does not acknowledge the need for two courses on disaster preparedness. According to him, public education is minimal, while people should know that the first three days after an earthquake, everything is their responsibility. Additionally, he noted the poor state of relevant agencies for crisis situations, stating, 'No new study has been conducted to measure Tehran's preparedness for an earthquake, but certainly this preparedness is not high.' Pyruz Hanachi had also mentioned on July 3 that the Japan International Cooperation Agency indicated that if any of Tehran's active faults were to activate while everyone is at home with a magnitude of 7, 400,000 people would die. He referred to the impacts of the destruction of water and gas networks on increasing casualties, noting that while the gas network is relatively equipped, the main network would be cut off due to the shock and vibrations of the earthquake, but the gas in the pipes would still pose a danger. Ali Beitollahi, head of the Engineering Seismology and Risk Assessment Department at the Road, Housing, and Urban Development Research Center, also criticized the poor quality of construction in Iran on September 8, stating that with a 7-magnitude earthquake, about 60% of buildings would be destroyed. The Tasnim news agency quoted Ali Beitollahi as saying, 'The Tehran and Karaj area has a significantly higher risk range compared to other areas in Iran.' He emphasized that initial damage estimates for a 7-magnitude earthquake indicate serious damage to over 2 million housing units with more than 6 million people affected, and the proximity of these two metropolitan areas multiplies the risk compared to other provincial centers. The Etemad newspaper also warned city management on September 25 not to take the absence of an earthquake as a good omen, in response to Tehran Mayor Alireza Zakani's claim that there has been no earthquake in Tehran for 3,000 years and that there is no threat from earthquakes for the capital. Etemad criticized this approach, stating that this alarming statement from the highest management authority in Tehran is not something to be easily dismissed. Fariborz Nategh Elahi, a seismic engineer, also stated in an interview with Etemad that Tehran is 80% vulnerable in terms of susceptibility. Ahmad Shahroudi commented that an earthquake in Tehran could be due to the city's historical urban planning and catastrophic mismanagement. A 6.3 magnitude earthquake in Herat was felt in several cities in Iran. Warnings regarding the potential consequences of an earthquake in Tehran have been issued, with the deputy of the International Institute of Seismology stating that officials are shirking their responsibilities. Several schools in Tehran and Isfahan have been evacuated due to 'land subsidence.' Two earthquakes were reported in Damavand, shaking the eastern part of Tehran province. The Engineering System Organization warned that a thousand towers in Tehran are at risk of fire.