Daily Gasoline Consumption Exceeds 121 Million Liters; Rising Imbalance and Potential Fuel Supply Challenges

The National Iranian Oil Products Distribution Company announced in its latest report that the average daily gasoline consumption from the beginning of Farvardin to the 9th of Farvardin has reached 121 million and 300 thousand liters, which represents a 6.1% increase compared to the same period last year. Experts believe that with the growth of gasoline consumption in Iran and the limited daily production capacity, a fuel supply challenge will soon arise in the country. The Tasnim news agency, affiliated with security institutions, reported that on the 29th of Esfand 1402, more than 152 million liters of gasoline were consumed nationwide, setting an unprecedented record for gasoline consumption across the country. This record and the increase in the country's average consumption occur while, according to media reports, gasoline production in 10 refineries in Iran, under the best conditions, is a maximum of 117 million liters per day. This amount, according to some experts, is also calculated considering petrochemical gasoline, which is technically unauthorized and carcinogenic. Concurrently with the new records, the Noor News website, affiliated with the Supreme National Security Council of the Islamic Republic, has described the increase in gasoline consumption in the country as a "major challenge" and announced that the Ministry of Oil has turned to strategic gasoline reserves to supply the country's fuel stations. The concerns arising from gasoline consumption and its costs have compelled the government to seek price increases and reductions in quotas. This event could have social repercussions, reminiscent of the November 98 protests and the killings of protesters against the gasoline price increase during Hassan Rouhani's administration. Recently, Hassan Rouhani stated, without referring to the killings during the 98 protests, that "when I woke up in the morning to pray, I saw a subtitle that gasoline had increased in price the night before. It was not strange to me, as I had given authority to the National Security Council. What surprised me was why they didn't tell me the night before. So when I say I found out in the morning, it is true and accurate." The government of Ebrahim Raisi, also ignoring these repercussions and the potential for unrest, is preparing public opinion for this action. In this context, the economic minister's advisor stated on the 18th of Esfand 1402 that an increase in gasoline prices in Iran is inevitable and that the government must first communicate with the people through authorities, clerics, and experts before raising gasoline prices. These statements followed the remarks of the deputy for industries and energy at the Fuel Management and Transportation Headquarters, who, in an interview with the Ham-Mihan newspaper on Tuesday, the 15th of Esfand, announced the government's plans for gasoline, including the elimination of government gasoline quotas and the final price increase to 3,000 tomans. Kazem Azizi emphasized that if the government seeks to control consumption, this action can only occur with a price increase from 1,500 tomans to 15,000 tomans. The Ham-Mihan newspaper also referred to sanctions and currency problems, quoting Kazem Azizi as saying that "the situation is critical." Alongside these statements, media and experts close to the government are continuously discussing the gasoline imbalance and the budget needed for imports to prepare public opinion for gasoline changes. In this context, Hashem Oraki, head of the Energy Scientific Associations Union, reported on the 6th of Esfand last year about a $4 billion import of gasoline and diesel, stating that Ali Khamenei, the leader of the Islamic Republic, expressed dissatisfaction with the question, "Why should we have gasoline imports?" The ILNA news agency also reported in Bahman last year, based on the insights of its reporter in the parliament corridors, that the government plans to move towards a three-tier pricing system from spring next year by reducing the free gasoline quota or the 3,000 toman gasoline. Voice of America has reported several times over the past year, citing statements from Islamic Republic officials and media emphasis in Iran on the necessity of managing consumption and comparing consumption in Iran with other countries, indicating fundamental changes in the gasoline sector. Ahmad Vahidi, the Minister of Interior, stated on the 15th of Azar that "one liter of our gasoline is cheaper than one liter of water." Voice of America also emphasized in a report based on these statements that the legal obligation and approval in the "Seventh Development Plan" and the budget for 1403, alongside the statements of Islamic Republic officials, indicate a significant event in the gasoline sector. Reuters reported on the 2nd of Dey 98 that about 1,500 people were killed in protests against the gasoline price increase, citing three sources close to the leader of the Islamic Republic who stated that Khamenei had instructed government and security officials to "do whatever is necessary" to stop the protests.