Dark Horizon for Turkey's Government in 2016

The Turkish government has long been battling a multi-faceted and multi-signature assassination incident. On one hand, the crisis situation in southeastern Turkey, particularly in major cities like Sur, Silopi, Diyarbakir, and Şırnak, continues; on the other hand, since June 7, 2015, the terrorist group ISIS has repeatedly launched attacks against the Turkish government, resulting in numerous deaths and injuries in cities such as Diyarbakir, Suruç, Ankara, and more recently Istanbul (Sultan Ahmed Square). However, the bombing incident in Sultan Ahmed Square is of particular importance, as it has dealt a severe blow to the economic heart of Turkey. Despite the fact that the tourism season in Turkey has not yet begun, according to the statements of the head of the Turkish Hotel and Tourism Agencies Union, such operations could lead to concern and anxiety among European and Chinese tourists, and the Turkish tourism sector is expected to face a predictable recession this spring and even in the summer. It should be noted that the terrorist actions of ISIS are as condemnable and subject to severe criticism as those in Paris, San Bernardino, Jakarta, and Burkina Faso, and the Istanbul incident also has aspects of condemnation and criticism, as in all these cases, more than anything, humanity has been targeted. Nevertheless, will the current terrorist conditions in Turkey let this country go in 2016? What will the political, social, security, and economic horizon of Turkey be in 2016? A) From a social perspective: While the Turkish government is battling terrorism, it is also facing protests from civil society organizations, human rights organizations, Amnesty International, and the European community. Pressure on journalists, media outlets, and the restriction and filtering of social media networks has begun months ago, leading to criticism from government opponents and also Western leaders. The imprisonment of the editor and a journalist from Cumhuriyet newspaper, which is nearing the end of its second month, alongside the arrest of 21 university professors for protesting the continuation of battles and the killing of ordinary people in southeastern Turkey, has added to the social crisis. Meanwhile, changes in the policy regarding the democratic management structure of universities are also concerning. On Monday, the Turkish Higher Education Organization announced on its official website that from the new year, university presidents will not be elected by the faculty but will be appointed by the relevant organization and approved by the presidency. All these factors indicate a climate of social pressure and imposition that could have negative consequences for Turkey this year. B) From a security perspective: The beginning of relentless battles between Turkish security and military forces and PKK rebels, as well as spontaneous Kurdish fighters known as the 'Revolutionary Front for the Liberation of the People,' has turned the southeastern region of Turkey into a battlefield for both sides. While state forces are engaged in combat with Kurdish rebels, independent forces known as Asadullah have emerged in the conflict cities, presenting an uncontrollable face to the world. The imposition of special conditions and martial law in the cities of Cizre and Silopi, along with the deaths of many ordinary citizens due to the battles, has raised concerns among human rights organizations. Meanwhile, the war conditions in the region have forced residents to flee. Protests from relatives of fallen military personnel against the government and demands to end the battles represent a serious challenge for the Ankara government. Nauman Kurtulmuş, the government spokesman, announced at the end of the second week of this month in his weekly press conference that in the coming months and by March, the roots of terrorism will be eradicated, and afterward, the government will sit at the negotiating table with the Kurds. Meanwhile, the Armed Forces Command also stated on January 14, 2016, on its website that after the battles end, army forces will withdraw from the conflict areas. However, Jamil Bayik, the vice president of the Kurdish Communities Committee, stated in an interview with Le Monde that the intensity of the battles against the government will increase after spring if no reconciliation occurs, and both internal and external popular and combat organizations will engage in struggle against the central government. Although the government is taking this threat seriously and is attempting to block transportation routes and the transfer of munitions, and even in two days (Friday and Saturday) last week, two shipments of weapons and munitions were seized by forces in the cities of Siirt and Sur, the use of homemade munitions by Kurdish rebel forces remains a significant problem for the Turkish government. The Sur region and neighboring cities, which have now become the pilot operations of the PKK, evoke images of the Palestinian intifada against Israeli forces through the use of homemade explosives. C) From a political perspective: Another issue occupying the Turkish government in 2016 is its lack of retreat in its positions regarding the Syrian crisis. In 2014, when fighters against Bashar al-Assad's government were conducting harassment operations and sometimes effective actions, the Ankara government believed that it would not be long before the Damascus government would fall. However, since April 2015, when the global community's approach to the Syrian crisis changed and a diplomatic consensus was reached regarding the peace process, the onset of Russian military attacks and implicit coordination with the United States prevented the Ankara government from achieving its objectives. Meanwhile, the threat of creating a Kurdish buffer zone has caused serious concern for Turkey, and the failure of the U.S. to meet Ankara's demands has further impacted the Turkish government regarding the unintended developments in the Syrian issue. In this context, media revelations and Putin's comments regarding Ankara's implicit cooperation with ISIS have led the Turkish government to clarify its official position on this matter. Ankara's change in approach has resulted in ISIS retaliating and dragging the exhausting battles from outside into Turkish territory. Alongside these issues, the Turkish government is also facing accusations and criticisms from the European community regarding its inadequate control of Syrian refugees. Jean-Claude Juncker recently expressed the European Union's dissatisfaction with the Turkish government's performance in controlling migrants from the Aegean Sea. Meanwhile, Angela Merkel, the Federal Chancellor of Germany, has complained about the lack of seriousness of the Ankara government in preventing the flood of Syrian refugees. Italy has also blocked the payment of a three billion euro aid share. D) From an economic perspective: The Turkish government aims to somehow free itself from the chaotic and crisis-ridden situation. On one hand, the increase in economic recession with the depreciation of the national currency, and on the other hand, the impact of Russian sanctions on both tourism and services and production sectors, as well as the burden of rising costs due to the continuation of battles in southeastern Turkey, are truly troubling the Ankara government. Currently, the exchange rate of the dollar has risen above three lira, while inflation, which was below seven percent two years ago, has now increased to 9.8 percent. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate among the youth has risen from 12.6 percent to 18.6 percent. (Source: Turkish Statistical Institute - Tweek) Alongside these, the nearly nine billion dollar loss resulting from Russian sanctions adds to the problem. Ultimately, it should be said that even if we look at the issue optimistically, imagining that a ceasefire is established between the Kurds and the central government, that ISIS is completely eradicated, and that there is no threat against Turkey, and that the existing tensions with Russia are resolved, there still remains a major problem for the Turkish government. Because the reconstruction of war-torn areas and healing the wounds of the local people and forgetting the recent events among both the families of fallen state personnel and among the rebellious Kurds seems very difficult. Beyond these issues, eliminating the spirit of ethnic and racial conflict is also a very troubling problem that requires time to diminish, thus the year 2016 does not create a bright horizon for the ruling government.