Decline in Support for the Justice and Development Party in the Weeks Leading Up to Turkey's Elections

Less than six weeks before Turkey's general elections, the latest poll results indicate that support for the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) is slightly lower than in the elections three months ago. According to reports, the poll results released on Monday, September 30, show that 39.3% of voters stated they would vote for the party led by Ahmet Davutoğlu in the upcoming elections. This figure is 1.6% lower than the votes the AKP received in the late spring elections. President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and the leadership of the AKP had set November 1 for a repeat election in hopes of securing more votes to form a single-party government. In the June elections, the party lost its ability to form a single-party government for the first time since coming to power in 2002, obtaining only 40.9% of the votes. However, according to the new poll, Ahmet Davutoğlu, the transitional prime minister, will still need to form a coalition with other parties to establish his next government. Davutoğlu recently stated that only a single-party government could ensure the security and stability of his country. In last week's poll, support for the AKP was slightly higher than this week, but there was still no prospect for the formation of a single-party government for its leaders. In the latest poll, the Republican People's Party, which is currently in the opposition, has strengthened and garnered 28.1%, which is 3.1% more than last week. The pro-Kurdish party, the Peoples' Democratic Party, led by Selahattin Demirtaş, has received 13.5% of the votes in the new poll, indicating that it will again surpass the 10% threshold required to enter parliament. Many observers noted that the AKP intensified military attacks on PKK bases this summer in hopes of ousting the pro-Kurdish party from parliament, effectively resuming the war with this group. Meanwhile, on the night of September 29, over one hundred thousand Turks held a rally in support of the Turkish army's military campaign against the PKK. The demonstration, titled 'Millions of Breaths; One Voice Against Terror,' held in Istanbul and several other cities, was seen as a rally in support of Erdoğan. Despite his presidential position, Erdoğan participated in this election campaign in favor of the AKP, which he founded, and vowed to eliminate 'terrorists to the last one.' Erdoğan also stated that 'there will be no mercy against terrorism.' Ahmet Davutoğlu, in a speech at a similar rally held last Thursday in Ankara, referred to the pro-Kurdish party, saying, 'Anyone who wants to destroy the country by fragmenting it has no place but hell.' Since the ceasefire between the PKK and the Turkish army and government was effectively canceled two months ago, Kurdish militants have killed dozens of soldiers and police in various operations. However, the Turkish army has also eliminated several Kurdish militants in its nearly daily attacks, both within Turkey and against PKK bases in the Kurdish region of northern Iraq.