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There have been so many statements about a peace deal with Iran that it’s hard to take seriously President Donald Trump’s claims of success. But for the first time in four months, it appears we finally have a settlement — or, more accurately, a short-term placeholder to give everybody some time for a more complicated negotiation on what to do about Iran’s nuclear program.
Trump’s settlement with Tehran no doubt is a relief to everyone involved — except for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who never wanted an agreement with Iran and nearly upended the diplomatic process on a few occasions.
Iran’s neighbors in the Persian Gulf will no longer have to worry about Iranian ballistic missiles and drones slamming into their critical infrastructure or energy facilities, at least for the next 60 days. Iran, whose finances have taken a beating, reportedly will be able to send oil tankers through the Strait of Hormuz again without seizure by U.S. Navy ships. A free and open strait will benefit Americans as well, because the more oil that enters the market, the lower the prices at the gas pump. Even Lebanon, a country that isn’t directly a part of the U.S.-Iran dispute, will see some benefits. The extension of the ceasefire covers the current war between Israel and Hezbollah, which has uprooted more than a million people from their homes.
Yet let’s not pretend we’re out of the woods. The framework deal is the first step in what will be a long process. First comes implementation. The U.S. Navy drop its blockade in return for Iran permitting vessels to travel through the regional waterway. When the ceasefire in Lebanon will start is a mystery, although Israeli military operations against Hezbollah could get more intense as Netanyahu seeks to leverage whatever time is left on the clock to deal the Lebanese terrorist group a bigger blow.
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Assuming there aren’t any hiccups in the implementation — and there’s no reason to believe there won’t be problems along the way — the United States and Iran will sit down again for direct talks on the nuclear issue.
If this sounds familiar, that’s because it is. The Trump administration has been trying to hammer out a nuclear accord with Iran ever since it returned to power in January 2025. Both attempts — in spring 2025 and winter 2026 — were cut short after Trump, encouraged by Netanyahu, ordered airstrikes against Iran once he became frustrated with diplomatic efforts.
Now, we’re back to square one. Although Trump habitually will celebrate the framework’s success as one of the best diplomatic agreements ever negotiated, it’s important to be clear about what it’s not: a comprehensive accord that solves the Iranian nuclear issue. Instead, what we have is an attempt to return the United States, Iran and the Middle East at large back to Feb. 27, the day before the war kicked off.
Moreover, as laborious as it was to arrive at a framework with Iran, this initial step was the easy part. In fact, the principle behind it is straightforward to the point of being elementary: In return for Iran bringing the Strait of Hormuz back to the prewar status quo, Washington will stop interdicting Iranian-affiliated ships carrying oil. You don’t need many expert-level officials at the table to make this work.
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That’s not going to be the case when both sides start haggling over the details of a potential nuclear agreement. The mechanics involved in U.S. sanctions relief are destined to involve a give-and-take that will tax patience.
Nor will establishing a verified monitoring regime over Iran’s nuclear work be as simple as writing a meandering post on Truth Social. For reference, it took Barack Obama’s administration nearly two years to pull all of this off. The Trump administration is hoping to wrap all of it up in 60 days, which is about as realistic as a publisher asking an author to file a 600-page historical tome in a few months.
The question is: Can both sides meet each other halfway? The Trump administration wants Iran to eliminate its entire enriched uranium stockpile, whereas Iran is willing to dilute it to a lower grade. Trump wants a 20-year suspension on Iran’s enrichment capabilities, which is 10 years more than Iran is offering. And Iran wants as much U.S. sanctions relief on the front end as possible. For the White House, only verified Iranian compliance can unlock economic rewards.
There can be a final deal if reasonable heads prevail. The key word is “if.”
Daniel DePetris is a fellow at Defense Priorities and a foreign affairs columnist for the Chicago Tribune. Sponsored advertisementClick here to place an ad
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