Diplomats: Increased Likelihood of Reaching a Comprehensive Nuclear Agreement

Reuters reported, citing Iranian and Western officials, that despite existing differences, the likelihood of both sides reaching a comprehensive and final agreement to limit the Islamic Republic's nuclear program for at least 10 years, in exchange for easing sanctions against Iran, appears to have increased. This report was published two days after Alaeddin Boroujerdi, head of the National Security and Foreign Policy Commission of the Islamic Consultative Assembly, stated that due to the 'excessive demands of the other side' and 'Iran's resistance,' the likelihood of a final agreement is 'not high.' In a report published on Thursday, June 18, Reuters referenced statements from American officials, including President Barack Obama, regarding a 50-50 chance of reaching a final agreement, adding that diplomats close to the negotiations indicated that the chances of such an agreement would increase with the arrival of the foreign ministers of Iran and the 1+5 countries in Vienna next week. These diplomats also noted that there has not yet been significant progress on the main contentious issues. A senior diplomat stated, 'We do not rule out the possibility of a failure in negotiations. However, it seems that the likelihood of reaching something is greater. Not by June 30, but perhaps in the days after that.' Another diplomat remarked, 'I think we will reach an agreement because the two main parties [Iran and the U.S.] need this agreement more.' Reuters then quoted an unnamed Iranian official who estimated the probability of reaching a final agreement at '70 percent,' adding, 'We will reach an agreement because the Americans need it more than we do.' He also stated, 'This agreement will help both countries.' Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the leader of the Islamic Republic, previously mentioned in May the 'high need of the U.S. government for the current negotiations,' adding, 'They are in desperate need to say, 'We brought Iran to the negotiating table and imposed some issues on it' to highlight a significant point in their record.' Reuters identified Iran's efforts to avoid accepting minor commitments, France's hardline stance in the negotiations, and the U.S. Congress's rigidity against the Obama administration's approach to the negotiations as the main obstacles to reaching a comprehensive and final agreement regarding the controversial nuclear program of the Islamic Republic.