Divergent Statistics on Iranian Casualties in Syria

Iran has consistently denied its military presence in Syria, claiming it only has advisory roles. In September 2012, Mohammad Ali Jafari, commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), mentioned the presence of Quds Force members in Syria due to special circumstances in Syria and Lebanon, but insisted this did not equate to a military presence. Syrian President Bashar al-Assad stated in a speech in Damascus this July that Iran provides military assistance to Syria, emphasizing Iran's significant role in the stability and dignity of the Syrian nation. With the rising number of Iranian casualties in Syria, IRGC Deputy Commander Hossein Salami stated in a special news interview on November 5 that the security of Iran and Syria is interconnected. Salami asserted that Syria holds extraordinary strategic value for Iran, linking the security of significant parts of the Islamic world, Syria's national security, and Iran's national security. This understanding is the main philosophical basis for Iran's presence in Syria, which he noted has a strong ideological aspect but also important strategic dimensions. Earlier, in February 2013, Mehdi Taeb, head of the Ammar Headquarters, told a gathering of Basij students that if Khuzestan and Syria were attacked, their priority would be to defend Syria, referring to Syria as Iran's thirty-fifth province and stating that losing Syria would mean losing Khuzestan as well. Ali Mohtadi, a journalist and political analyst residing in France, commented to Radio Farda that in the early days of the Syrian events, the Iranian presence was limited to military advisors providing counsel to the Syrian government and army. However, as conflicts escalated and groups like ISIS emerged, this military presence increased. Iran has not only sent military advisors but also ground forces fighting alongside Hezbollah. The high number of Iranian casualties could indicate an increase in these forces. It is crucial to note that the issue of Syria and not losing it is foundational to Iran's strategic policies in the region, and Iran is unwilling to compromise on this matter. While Iranian officials report 42 Iranian casualties in Syria, the newspaper 'Isfahan Ziba' published an article on November 26 stating that nearly 50 individuals from Isfahan have died in Syria, making it the province with the third-highest number of martyrs after Khorasan Razavi and Qom. Ali Alfoneh, a senior member of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies in Washington, reported that from January 2013 to August 2015, 113 members of the IRGC were killed, including 8 from the Quds Force, 8 from the IRGC Ground Forces, 3 from the Basij branch, and 94 from an unspecified branch of the IRGC. Adding the figures provided by the Iranian government brings the total to 155. Mohtadi noted that this behavior is not unique to Iran; most countries in the region tend to underreport casualties to manage public opinion. For instance, Hezbollah, which is not a state but a group, adopts a similar approach, reporting far fewer casualties than reality despite its significant presence in Syria. The reported figures seem unreliable, and the increase in Iranian casualties can be inferred from the funerals held across Iran and the recent victories of the Syrian army, which are partly attributed to the stronger presence of Iran and Hezbollah in Syria. One reason Iran has sent more forces to Syria is that the Syrian army was not initially trained for urban warfare or guerrilla tactics, focusing primarily on fighting Israel, which limited its capacity to combat opposition groups in the early years and necessitated Iranian advisors. Despite the various lists of Iranian casualties in Syria, no official and verified list has been published by Iranian authorities, and only through following recent news can one compile a long list of names of the deceased.