Does Tension Between Israel and Hezbollah Lead to a Widespread War?

Tension between Israel and Hezbollah in Lebanon, which has been ongoing for more than eight months, has now reached a dangerous stage; to the extent that Benjamin Netanyahu, the Prime Minister of Israel, on June 6, once again threatened 'strong action' against Lebanon, prompting a response from the United States. What is the reason for the tension? The tension at the Lebanon-Israel border escalated with the start of the Gaza war. Rocket and drone attacks by Hezbollah on Israel began on October 8, 2023, a day after the surprise attack by the extremist group Hamas on Israeli cities and settlements. Hamas is recognized as a terrorist group by the US and Europe. The attack on October 7 initiated the Gaza war. Hezbollah, which is supported by the Islamic Republic of Iran and is an ally of Hamas, claims that its aim in attacking Israel is to support the Palestinians in Gaza. Violence is one of the regional consequences of the Gaza war, which has attracted armed groups supported by Tehran throughout the region. Hezbollah is the most powerful group among a set of groups supported by Tehran and is referred to as the 'Resistance Axis.' Although the tension between Israel and Hezbollah is related to the Gaza war, it has its own triggers. Israel and Hezbollah have engaged in numerous conflicts in the past. The last major conflict between the two sides was in 2006, known as the 33-day war, which began when Hezbollah, in an operation, breached the border line between Lebanon and Israel, killed two Israeli soldiers, and abducted their bodies. Hezbollah's ideology is largely based on enmity with Israel. This group was established by the Revolutionary Guards in 1982, with the declared aim of waging war against Israeli forces that invaded Lebanon that year and occupied parts of it. The Islamic Republic and the evolution of the 'order in disorder' model in the region lasted about 18 years of guerrilla warfare between Israel and Hezbollah until Israel decided to withdraw from southern Lebanon in 2000. Hezbollah considers Israel an illegitimate country established on occupied Palestinian lands; therefore, it seeks its destruction. The current tension has had consequences for both sides. Thousands of residents on both sides of the border have been forced to leave their homes. Israeli airstrikes have devastated areas where Hezbollah operates in the south and the Bekaa Valley near the Syrian border. Israel has bombed other areas as well, including an attack last December that resulted in the death of Saleh al-Arouri, the deputy head of Hamas's political bureau, in southern Beirut. So far, Israeli attacks have resulted in the deaths of about 300 Hezbollah fighters and, according to Reuters, about 80 civilians. Israel claims that Hezbollah's attacks have led to the deaths of 19 soldiers and 10 Israeli civilians. In Israel, the flight of many residents from northern areas has created a serious political crisis. Israeli officials hope to create conditions for families to return to their homes before the new school year begins. Despite the intensity of the ongoing tensions, the situation is still considered 'controlled.' After Hezbollah recently increased the scale and intensity of its attacks on northern Israel, Israeli officials, including Benjamin Netanyahu, threatened to initiate a widespread war against Lebanon. Herzi Halevi, the commander of the Israeli army, during a visit to the northern front, told Israeli military commanders, 'We are approaching the time for decision-making. The Israeli Defense Forces are fully prepared for this decision.' He emphasized, 'We have been conducting attacks for eight months; Hezbollah is paying a very heavy price. In recent days, Hezbollah has increased the intensity of its attacks. We are fully prepared for war. Training at the highest level of the General Staff for transitioning to war in the north is underway.' Israel announced its readiness to attack the Lebanese border. Sheikh Naeem Qassem, the deputy secretary-general of Hezbollah, said on June 6 that the group is not seeking to escalate tensions 'but Hezbollah is ready for any war imposed on it.' Naeem Qassem, in an interview with Al Jazeera, added, 'Hezbollah has only used a small part of its capabilities so far.' He threatened that any Israeli action to escalate the war would result in nothing but 'destruction, devastation, and displacement' in Israel. Large-scale wars have caused significant damage to both sides. In the 2006 war, vast areas of southern Beirut (Dahiyeh), which is under Hezbollah's control, were leveled. Beirut's airport was also destroyed, and many roads, bridges, and other infrastructure in Lebanon were damaged. Additionally, about one million Lebanese fled their homes. In Israel, about 300,000 people fled their homes, and about 2,000 houses were destroyed. Compared to 2006, Hezbollah's weapon systems are now larger. The group claims to possess missiles that can target all areas of Israel. Last September, Hezbollah showcased part of its military capabilities. The group shot down an Israeli drone, targeted areas in Israel with explosive drones, and fired more advanced guided missiles at Israel. The US and France are working to prevent the escalation of tensions at the Israel-Lebanon border and the transformation of it into a widespread war. Matthew Miller, a spokesperson for the US State Department, said on June 17, 'We continue to work towards a diplomatic solution. We do not seek to escalate tensions, as it will only lead to more deaths of Israelis and Lebanese, and it will cause significant harm to Israel's security and regional stability.' Two days earlier, Mr. Miller had stated, 'We heard that Israeli leaders say they prefer a diplomatic solution. Clearly, we prefer this solution.' Benjamin Netanyahu announced Israel's readiness for 'very strong action' at the Lebanese borders. Hezbollah, which is recognized as a terrorist group by the US, says it welcomes any agreement that benefits Lebanon, but until Israel stops its attacks on Gaza, discussions cannot take place.