Donald Trump for Iran; Maximum Pressure on the Government or Maximum Support for Protesters?

From "The Excitement" of Manoochehr Asgari Nasab to Ben Affleck's "Argo," one can observe the traces of Iran-U.S. relations; a relationship that soured 45 years ago on November 4 with the attack on the U.S. embassy and has recently taken a different direction amid the indirect war between Iran and Israel. Two days after the anniversary of this historical event, on November 15, the U.S. presidential election took place, and Donald Trump returned to the White House after a four-year hiatus, becoming the 47th President of the United States; a powerful presence reflected in both the high number of electoral votes and the popular vote. Some interpreted his return and high vote count as a confrontation between the working class and elites in America, but many in the Middle East were watching this election closely. Following Trump's victory, global financial markets reacted immediately; some markets, like cryptocurrencies, saw growth, while others experienced mild declines that were later compensated. But where will Donald Trump take Iran in his new presidential term? In the program "Paragraph One," we discussed this topic with Jonathan Schanzer, an Iran affairs researcher at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies in Washington, and Mohammad Qaedi, a lecturer at George Washington University, which you can listen to in full. Jonathan Schanzer considers the three-month period remaining until Trump’s arrival a critical timeframe that, given the Iran-Israel war, could be pregnant with events. This analyst does not rule out the possibility of a retaliatory response from Iran to Israel's attack on November 5, but believes that Gaza could be more important among Trump's priorities. However, since, according to Schanzer, the Islamic Republic has always portrayed itself as part of the Middle East problem, it remains to be seen who will take the first step during this period and whether Israel's response to this potential preemptive attack will be. In this case, how much leeway will Trump give to the Israeli Prime Minister, and will he want to directly engage in the Israel-Iran issue? Mohammad Qaedi also states that the Islamic Republic has no choice but to respond to Israel regarding the violation of Iranian airspace. According to this university lecturer, the Islamic Republic's response will be influenced by considerations such as the future Trump administration's policy toward Russia, China, Saudi Arabia, and the Gaza conflict. In the continuation of the "Paragraph One" program, Jonathan Schanzer describes Trump's unpredictability as his trump card in foreign policy. Schanzer notes that in Trump's first cabinet, a think tank published a book that outlined support for Israel and maximum support for the Iranian people as U.S. government priorities in the Middle East section. According to this researcher, Trump will use Israel and Benjamin Netanyahu as leverage against the Islamic Republic in continuing his maximum pressure policy without engaging in conflict with Iran. However, Mohammad Qaedi speaks of changes in red lines and propositions that could exert pressure beyond what was previously known as maximum pressure during Trump's first cabinet. He refers to issues such as the violation of Iranian airspace, the consolidation of power among Republicans in the U.S.—considering possibilities such as a Republican majority in the House of Representatives—discussions about threats to Trump's life from Tehran, and the hacking of his election campaign. This university lecturer speculates that Israel may play a role similar to that of the former Shah of Iran in the 1970s as a regional gendarme in relation to the Middle East and Iran over the next four years. In the continuation of the program, Yaqoob, who works at a startup company, discusses factors behind Iranian citizens' welcome of Donald Trump's election. He, residing in Tehran, states that the disillusioned segment, especially after the Mahsa movement, wants the atmosphere to become more intense, as they see glimmers of hope for fundamental changes with Trump's presence. On the other hand, Yaqoob refers to individuals he calls "opportunists or sanction profiteers"; individuals who are not necessarily "governmental" but could benefit economically from Trump's sanctions. A photographer in Tehran also mentions that in the last year of the previous presidency of Mr. Trump, everyone was hopeful that there would be no reconciliation with the government and that perhaps changes would occur in Iran. He considers this a reason for Trump's popularity. In this program, Mohammad Qaedi discusses the key role of individuals and groups such as Jared Kushner, Trump's son-in-law, Miriam Adelson, a contributor to his election campaign, and evangelical Christians, who could play a fundamental role in Trump's future policy toward Iran in light of his conflict with Israel. The George Washington University lecturer believes that Trump's return and further sanctions will put pressure on and weaken Iran's middle class, which he argues is not good for the Iranian democracy movement.