Economic Crisis and Ineffectiveness of Marriage Incentives; Divorce Rates Soar in Spring

Statistics released by the Civil Registration Organization indicate that nearly 80,000 marriages and about 38,000 divorces were registered in the country during the spring season. An unprecedented event has occurred in Iran, where in 12 provinces, at least one divorce has been registered for every two marriages. The news agency "Rokna" reported on Wednesday, July 7, that the divorce-to-marriage ratio in provinces such as Alborz, Mazandaran, Semnan, Tehran, and Markazi is more critical than in other parts of the country. According to the report from the Civil Registration Organization, the highest number of divorces registered in the first month of the current year were in Tehran with 6,229 cases, Razavi Khorasan with 4,068 cases, and Isfahan with 2,000 divorces. Analysts believe that the "money-splashing" policies [in the form of various loans] for marriage and childbearing play a significant role in the formation of unsuccessful marriages, while rampant inflation and rising costs threaten family foundations. As a result, the divorce rate has reached half of the marriage rate. Regarding marriage statistics and "money-splashing" in this sector, we can refer to the statements of Vahid Yamini-Pour, Deputy Minister of Sports and Youth, who stated on May 1, 2022, that banks paid 80 trillion tomans in 2021 and nearly 124 trillion tomans in 2022 for marriage loans, with a total increase of 55% in the disbursement of marriage loans to applicants. The Islamic Republic is also seeking to create financial attractiveness for young people in small towns who have a traditional view of marriage, and in this regard, Yamini-Pour mentioned that a new law regarding 220 million tomans in marriage loans for girls under 23 and boys under 25, and 180 million tomans for others, was communicated to banks on April 10 of this year. Another noteworthy point in the "money-splashing" policy for marriage is the easing of conditions for obtaining marriage loans and the removal of the mandatory military service requirement, allowing those subject to military service to benefit from this loan upon marriage. According to experts, inflation is another influential factor in the increase in divorce rates. Currently, the year-on-year inflation rate for food items has been above 70% for several consecutive months, and overall inflation has exceeded 40% in the past four years. Meanwhile, wages in Iran have not kept pace with price increases and annual inflation, leading to a significant gap between expenses and income. A review of economic statistics and their correlation with divorce rates also shows that divorce rates have increased significantly in relation to inflation and unemployment. Statistics indicate that in 2008, the misery index was over 35%, with an unemployment rate of 10.5% and an inflation rate of 25.4%, which rose to 44% inflation and 8% unemployment with a misery index of 52% by fall 2022. During this period, the number of divorces registered in 2008 was over 101,000, which increased to 190,000 in 2022. Ahmad Mortazavi-Moghadam, the head of the Supreme Court, also reported on May 2 that 17,000 family dispute cases were referred to the Supreme Court in 2022, calling it a source of "regret." Previously, the Deputy for Women's Affairs in the Presidency stated, "More than 45% of marriages are unsuccessful, and from 2011 to 2020, divorce rates increased by 28%." Loans that are not repaid; money-splashing from the people's pockets. Continuing the policy of encouraging childbirth in Iran; compulsory military service has been removed as a condition for receiving loans. The impact of inflationary pressures on the lives of Iranians; the parliament is seeking to increase marriage loans to 200 million tomans. Farhad Zarif's reaction to the prosecutor's arrest warrant: "The 'trade of girls' for loans should hit you like a hammer." Mandatory population increase; 100 billion tomans allocated to encourage students to have children. Statistics speak; inflation has disrupted social relations. Increasing divorce rates and decreasing marriage and childbirth; Ansieh Khazaali: The problem is not economic, but women's extravagance.