Economic Misery and the Threat of Totalitarian Movements

In recent weeks, the Iran newspaper published the results of a survey conducted by the Tehran Chamber of Commerce among economic activists. The outcome of this survey reveals the despair and pessimism threatening production and producers in Iran. 78% of respondents assessed the country's economic outlook as bleak, or do not see themselves in a position to make accurate predictions about the future. The summary of the majority of economic activists surveyed reflects a negative view of the economic performance of the regime, believing that the Iranian economy is not moving in a clear and improving direction. Given that economic activists are generally conservative and cautious in expressing their opinions, this survey can be seen as a confirmation of the regressive economic trend in the country, one manifestation of which is the worsening living conditions of the people. In this context, economic demands and issues related to basic life needs have become a priority for a large segment of the protesting and gray areas of society, and it can be inferred that they have surpassed political and cultural demands at the societal level. Analyzing the protests and gatherings of various groups over the past year also indicates a tangible predominance of economic demands over political and cultural ones. However, if economic demands are not realized within a specific timeframe or if their proponents do not see a clear vision for fulfilling their demands, there is a significant potential for these to lead to political protests. The political objectives and destinations of these protests are undeniably different from those protests directly rooted in political and cultural issues. In this framework, considering the worsening economic situation, the emergence of totalitarian movements among the protesters against the current state is likely, which will consequently pose threats to the democratic movement in Iran. It should be noted that these movements differ from the activities of the social base of the Guardianship of the Islamic Jurist and Shiite fundamentalists and will evolve within alternative discourses to the Islamic Republic, which can be broadly categorized into right-wing totalitarianism akin to fascist and extreme right movements, or leftist ideological and authoritarian movements. From another perspective, both right and left populism can represent these tendencies. At the same time, it should be noted that the expansion of livelihood protests can also provide an opportunity for democratic movements to clarify the importance of a developmental democratic state in establishing a balance of freedoms, human dignity, and social justice, and to gather social support around its capabilities to adequately respond to livelihood needs. The growing dissatisfaction can pave the way for the formation of a mega social movement. Currently, a form of social awareness has emerged among a wide segment of society that considers saving the country from its regressive trajectory requires a change in the Islamic Republic and fundamental transformations in governance, rejecting limited reformist solutions. If democratic political forces seeking to transition from the Islamic Republic can build trust and present a suitable program to outline a clear and hopeful vision for the demands of social protest forces while alleviating their concerns and worries, the current livelihood protests hold significant and potentially positive capacities. However, alongside these opportunities, threats are also visible. Global and national experiences show that when the gap between the political system and society widens significantly, traditional solidarity in society collapses, ancient social references lose their credibility, and in a way, with the disintegration of social relations, individuals become scattered like social particles, predisposed to mass movements. These conditions facilitate the emergence of authoritarian movements. These movements, by maneuvering on economic problems, herald fundamental changes in the economic and political system and promise to quickly fulfill the economic demands of the dissatisfied through revolutionary actions. However, these conditions are not only conducive to the activities of authoritarian tendencies within the opposition but can also act in favor of dissenting factions within the system. Currently, the appropriate conditions for the emergence of authoritarian movements may favor the rise of Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's faction, which proposes justice minus freedom within an apocalyptic paradigm, or mafia groups within the Revolutionary Guard seeking to consolidate economic monopolies and institutionalized cronyism. Right-wing authoritarian political movements that seek revolution can be broadly categorized into fascism or right-wing totalitarianism. Historically, fascism has been a combination of elements such as extreme nationalism, imperialism, opposition to rational and intellectual traditions, sanctification of the state, racism, mass mobilization, leader worship, value conservatism, and populism. Currently, in Iran, some political currents advocating change in the Islamic Republic operate within the discourse of 'ideological antiquarianism' and 'sanctification of the reign of Reza Shah,' fueling 'extreme nationalism' and 'messianism,' whose views have theoretical affinities with fascist tendencies. On the other hand, leftist movements that have historically maneuvered on the demands of workers and vulnerable social groups or seek the abolition of private property and the empowerment of the working class in the political power hierarchy, emphasizing social justice, have also largely adopted authoritarian and totalitarian characteristics. Currently, some leftist forces in Iran that have not learned from the experiences of the Eastern Bloc and still pursue their thoughts within the framework of 'Marxism-Leninism' or consider the models of China, Russia, or Cuba are also in conflict with democracy. Therefore, these tendencies pose obstacles that threaten a peaceful transition to democracy from society and opposing factions, and outlining a roadmap for establishing democracy in Iran requires formulating strategies to neutralize these threats.