Egypt from Mubarak to Mubarak

This article provides a brief analytical overview of significant events in Egypt over the past year. Analyzing events in Egypt throughout 2014 is impossible without a glance back at the summer of the previous year, and I apologize to dear readers in advance for the article's limited scope that does not allow for all details of Egypt's events over the year. In fact, everything began on July 1, 2013, when Mohamed Morsi was starting his first anniversary as president. The protests that began that day outside the Muslim Brotherhood's headquarters in Cairo marked the beginning of the end of the short one-year term of Egypt's first and last elected president. Twenty-four hours later, the Egyptian military issued an ultimatum to the president, stating that if he did not reconcile with his opponents, they would replace Morsi's government with a temporary one and call for new elections. Naturally, Morsi refused to comply, and ultimately, on July 3, 2013, at the order of General Abdel Fattah el-Sisi, without announcing a date for the next elections, the head of Egypt's Supreme Court, Adly Mansour, was declared the interim president, ending the one-year rule of the Muslim Brotherhood. The fall of the Islamic-majority parliament once again filled the streets of Cairo and major cities with protesters demanding Morsi's return to power. The rest of the scenario is clear: between the protesting people and the interim government of Adly Mansour, there was only the gunfire of the ruling general's soldiers, and on the very first day of protests, more than 50 people were killed in the streets of Cairo. A week later, the appointment of moderate Mohamed ElBaradei as vice president could not control the situation or give hope to the people; millions poured into the streets, and Egypt's prosecutors announced that Morsi was under arrest at an undisclosed location on several charges, including conspiracy and collaboration with the Palestinian group Hamas during the Arab Spring uprisings in 2011. By late July, in a security forces attack in civilian clothes, another hundred people were killed. Catherine Ashton, the European Union's foreign policy chief, and two American senators (John McCain and Lindsey Graham) intervened as friends of Egypt, deeming the removal of Morsi a coup and calling for the restoration of democracy. Two days later, Senator Kerry attempted to downplay the severity of this criticism, stating that the military's intervention was in accordance with the people's wishes and not a coup. Despite numerous threats from the interim government to suppress protests, the demonstrations continued. Eventually, in mid-August, a curfew and martial law were announced. Despite such restrictions, on August 16 alone, more than 170 people were killed in street clashes, and the Arab Spring was watered with blood, completely blocking any possibility of reconciliation. The promise of the release of Hosni Mubarak from prison - two days later, General Sisi spoke to the people of Egypt for the first time since Morsi's ousting, expanding the scope of threats against any protests. The day after Sisi's speech, the people of Egypt heard from the lawyer of imprisoned President Hosni Mubarak that he might be released from prison and go home by the end of that week. The people wondered if the process of returning to the Mubarak era had begun. The limitation of freedoms - Egypt gradually moved towards limiting freedoms until November. This process did not reduce daily clashes but rather made the people more persistent in their demands. Finally, the stage was set for the last act: a referendum on the draft constitution hastily prepared by the interim government and its military supporters. On December 14, 2013, it was announced that the constitutional referendum would begin a month later, on January 14 and 15, 2014. There was still time before the referendum, and not all conditions were met. In the first step, the Muslim Brotherhood was declared a terrorist organization. Then General Abdel Fattah el-Sisi volunteered and very democratically announced that if the people wanted, he would be willing to accept the presidential nomination in the next elections. The sanctity of the 98 percent figure in the Middle East - Middle Eastern officials are often staunch defenders of democracy, but they fundamentally and practically have little fondness for the principle of over fifty-one percent, which is presented as an acceptable and legitimate level of elections in democratic countries. This may stem from absolute perfectionism or perhaps they follow the all-or-nothing rule, where in every election and every case that is voted on, the support of an absolute majority close to 100 percent must be secured to satisfy the officials. Another reason is that in the Middle East, dissenting opinions are not tolerated; the inclination of officials is towards the complete eradication of opponents rather than political coexistence with them. This phenomenon can be observed in most Middle Eastern countries, from Iran and Turkey and Iraq to Saudi Arabia and Syria and Egypt. Saddam Hussein had 98% of the votes in favor before the fall of his regime. Meanwhile, Hafez al-Assad never received less than 99% of the votes, and Bashar al-Assad, the appointed president of his father, won over 97.6% of the votes in his last presidential election in 2007 (the press reported 98 percent). In the height of the civil war in June 2014, Bashar al-Assad received 88.7% of the votes, while his two rivals together received only 7.5% of the votes. Thus, it is clear that Abdel Fattah el-Sisi could not possibly be satisfied with less than 98% of the votes, and finally, in the height of opposition protests, Sisi managed to secure over 98% of the votes in support of the new draft constitution. However, only 38.6% of eligible voters participated in the constitutional referendum. By late January, the military interim government agreed to Sisi's candidacy for the presidency of Egypt, although Sisi had to wait until March for the interim government to resign and pave the way for his official candidacy announcement, followed by setting a date for new presidential elections. A series of events indicate that General Sisi, who is a presidential candidate, has no intention of allowing dissenting voices to be heard. Between January and May 26-27, the date of the new elections, the suppression of government opponents and the elimination and imprisonment of Muslim Brotherhood supporters continued. On March 4, 2014, a court in Cairo banned the Palestinian group Hamas and confiscated their assets. Less than three weeks later, over 1,200 supporters of ousted President Mohamed Morsi were tried in the largest trial, and on March 24, 529 members of the Muslim Brotherhood received death sentences from the court. On April 3, 2014, former President Hosni Mubarak introduced General Sisi as the best presidential candidate and described his rival Hamdeen Sabahi as 'ineffective.' On the eve of the presidential election, Mubarak was sentenced to three years in prison for embezzlement in a case known as the 'Presidential Palace case.' Finally, May 26 was designated as the first day of elections, continuing for three days, although it had previously been stated that it would be a two-day event. The main candidates were retired General Abdel Fattah el-Sisi and leftist candidate Hamdeen Sabahi, whom Hosni Mubarak described as 'ineffective.' Some accused Sisi of manipulating the election results, and polling stations were reportedly empty throughout the day. Initially, it was stated that Sisi received 93.3% of the votes, while his rival Hamdeen Sabahi received only 3% of the votes. Sabahi accepted the election results but stated that they were not fair. However, when the election commission announced the official results, General Sisi was declared the new president with 96.91% of the legal votes! (Well, that is not much less than 98%). Thus, a military dictatorship was officially established in Egypt. Sisi took the oath of allegiance before the Constitutional Court on June 8, 2014. An examination of the conditions shows that not only has Egypt returned to the era of its seemingly ousted president Hosni Mubarak, but it has even worsened. It is reported that between 16,000 to 40,000 opponents are imprisoned, the majority of whom are supporters of the Muslim Brotherhood. The Sisi government is engaged in severe repression of opponents and even journalists, imprisoning three journalists from Al Jazeera in June on charges of supporting the Muslim Brotherhood. An official report by the Associated Press published on December 17, 2014, states that the number of imprisoned individuals in just one year is equal to 10,000. In October, following clashes with supporters of Palestinians in Gaza in the Sinai Peninsula, the Sisi government first began demolishing homes to prevent arms smuggling to Gaza and then declared a state of emergency for three months by granting special powers to the military. The most intense clashes between armed groups and government forces occur in northern Sinai and near the Gaza border, resulting in the deaths of many police and Egyptian soldiers. By demolishing numerous homes, Egypt has so far managed to create a buffer zone approximately one and a half to two kilometers long in the Gaza Strip. Ansar Bayt al-Maqdis, a jihadist Salafi group active in the region, is directly and violently clashing with Egyptian forces and has even recently announced that it has decided to join the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (formerly ISIS) in response to the repression by Egyptian soldiers. In a report published in November 2014, Ansar Bayt al-Maqdis claimed responsibility for killing William Henderson, a 58-year-old employee of an American oil company, in the summer. It is reported that he was killed in August in the Sinai Peninsula. Reports from independent human rights organizations accuse Egypt of torture and mass killings of opponents in ways outside judicial authority. For instance, one specific case mentioned in the human rights report is the killing of 95 protesters in July 2014, all of whom were shot in the head or chest. Similar reports weigh heavily on the record of General Sisi's government in 2014. A look at the last actions taken by the Sisi government in the last few months of 2014 mainly indicates his efforts to suppress any dissent from Islamist groups. For example, in November, Sisi's cabinet approved an anti-terrorism law. This law allows the government to suppress any dissatisfaction and opposition from any dissenting group or organization, whether Islamic, non-religious, or liberal, under the pretext of combating terrorism, arresting and prosecuting opponents labeled as 'terrorists.' On November 20, 2014, a court in Cairo dismissed all criminal charges against former President Hosni Mubarak and ruled for his release. For the first time since his ousting in 2011, Mubarak can now be released without any charges. A look at the future of Egypt - Although predicting events in the Middle East is not easy, considering the developments that have occurred since General Sisi's election and the ongoing relations between the U.S. and Egypt (the new ambassador was dispatched to Cairo on December 20), especially regarding the management of relations between the U.S. and Egypt, it can be predicted that Egypt will continue to experience contradictory movements in the short term on both domestic and foreign fronts. Domestically, it will crack down even harder on opponents; however, externally, due to its key position in Gaza and relations with the Palestinians on one hand and the existence of a peace treaty with Israel on the other, it will make the utmost effort to maximize the benefits from this unique situation. For Egypt, U.S. support and continued financial aid from this country are far more important than, for example, rushing to normalize relations with Iran. As long as Egypt cannot stabilize its internal situation, the likelihood of a shift towards a democratic system will not exist because, as previously mentioned, in the context of the Middle East, tolerance for dissenting opinions is either very minimal or does not exist at all. Leadership always seeks the support of ninety-eight percent of the people and deals harshly with that two percent of dissenters.